TUCSON, AZ – Tucson’s economy is poised for significant growth over the next two years. That was a key message at the University of Arizona Eller College of Management 2016 Breakfast with the Economists event held this week at the Westin La Paloma Resort in Tucson. 

More than 400 people attended the event to hear presenters George W. Hammond, Ph.D., director and research professor at UA Eller’s Economic and Business Research Center, and Ross DeVol, chief research officer of the Milken Institute, discuss the latest data and share predictions for local job growth, the housing sector, trade and export activity, the impact of education on local economic growth and more.

Hammond, who predicted in December 2015 that Tucson’s job growth would gradually improve, said Tucson job growth is finally beginning to pick up steam.

“Tucson continued to expand at a modest pace last year, but recent results suggest a significant acceleration,” Hammond said. “Further, the forecast calls for recent momentum to build toward stronger performance during the next two years.”

Hammond’s presentation revealed that: 

• Job growth in the Tucson metropolitan statistical area (MSA) averaged 2.8 percent over the year in the first three months of 2016. That translated into 10,400 additional jobs, according to the preliminary data. That was much faster than the 0.8 percent (2,900 jobs) increase that the local area posted last year.

• Most of the job gains over the year were in education and health services, financial activities, and professional and business services, with smaller increases in government (primarily state and local), manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, information, and trade, transportation, and utilities.

• Natural resources and mining and other services lost jobs. Declining copper prices drove the losses in mining.

• Population gains were modest last year, with the region adding just 2,200 residents. However, with stronger job growth expected for 2016, population gains may pick up additional steam. That would boost housing permit activity from relatively weak levels in 2015 to better performance during the next few years.

• Tucson’s job growth is forecast to accelerate from 0.8 percent last year to 1.7 percent in 2016, and to 1.9 percent in 2017. Population growth increases from 0.2 percent in 2015 to 0.6 percent this year and then to 1.0 percent in 2017.

“Overall, if the national economy continues to expand, Tucson is well positioned to grow, and to grow at a faster pace,” Hammond said. “However, there are risks to the outlook to consider. These include, but are not limited to, a national or global downturn, continued low U.S. residential mobility, and a major fiscal shock affecting the government sector.”

DeVol’s presentation focused on the characteristics of competitive places and the critical role of human capital. Guests heard about the Milken Institute’s new research, which displays the relationship between educational attainment and economic performance across 261 metropolitan economies in the U.S.

“We took into account the average years of schooling, age composition of the workforce, industry mix, R&D intensity as measured by patents per capita, and other structural differences,” DeVol said. “We found that adding one year of schooling to the average educational attainment among employed workers with at least a high school diploma is associated with an increase in real GDP per capita of 17.4 percent and an increase in real wage per worker of 17.8 percent.”

DeVol’s presentation covered several key points:

• The factors that are critical for regional economic success are changing and the role of human capital is becoming ever more important. Labor is highly mobile between U.S. regions as individuals and firms respond to differences in relative economic-performance factors. Migration trends between states and regions, however, can greatly alter their long-term potential growth rates. Today, concentrations of talent attract firms to states as opposed to industry agglomerations and firms being the principal attraction force for people.

• Since 1980, the average years of schooling among Americans 15 and older increased by 1.1 years, to 13.1 years in 2010. However, many nations are closing the gap. Other advanced economies gained 2.4 years, reaching 10.6 years of schooling over the same period.

• Tucson ranks the highest among Arizona’s metros in terms of education attainment. However, Tucson’s ranking has slipped from 62nd in 1990 to 90th in 2010 in the percent of the workforce with a bachelor’s degree or above among 261 metros.

• Arizona’s ranks 29th on human capital measures for states. Arizona performs well in attracting skilled labor from outside the state, but falls short of where it needs to be in creating its home-grown human capital.

For more information or to view Dr. Hammond’s slide presentation, visit Eller’s Economic and Business Research website, ebr.eller.arizona.edu.

Taking advantage of increasing TIF revenues and the beneficial effects of refinancing the 2008 city issued bonds, at its May 31, 2016 Regular Meeting, the Rio Nuevo Board approved an administrative budget of $1.4 million and a downtown project budget of $17.4 million for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2016.

The previously announced projects include the TCC Arena upgrades for the American Hockey League, the completion of the AC Marriott Hotel, 15,000-square-feet of new retail on the Westside, the initiation of the design for Caterpillar’s new headquarters building and the new Greyhound bus terminal.

The Board also approved the revised budget for the completion of the Mission Garden, increased the Greyhound terminal budget from $1.7 to $1.9 million, and authorized its attorneys to complete the Greyhound lease by taking the actions necessary to close on the purchase of the parcel at Broadway and Euclid.

Finally, the Board unanimously approved a $350,000 investment in the senior housing project designed to save the historic Marist College building and transform it into low-income senior apartments for those 62 years old and older.

The vacant Marist College building, located in downtown Tucson at 64 West Ochoa Street, is the largest and oldest adobe structure in the state. It was almost demolished, because it was deemed unsafe. Right now, drivers who pass by it on Church Ave. across from the Tucson Convention Center can see beams holding the building up.

The Marist College building would house eight apartments. The project also includes 75 more apartments in a new seven-story building that would replace the existing Tucson Catholic Diocese Offices located just a few steps away at the corner of Broadway and Church.

“It gives us the points we need to give us a better chance of low-income housing tax credits,” said Stephen Hastings who works for Foundation for Senior Living (FSL).

It is a major step forward after many years of failed attempts to save the building and give it a makeover.

However, it’s not a done deal yet. Those close to the project say Rio Nuevo’s support is a major step forward to making it a reality and diversifying downtown’s redevelopment movement.

If all goes as planned, FSL’s goal is to break ground next year and have seniors ready to move in by spring 2018.

Nominations open for wounded veterans to participate in the 2016 Grand Canyon Veteran Wilderness Expedition

TUCSON, AZ — Nominations are now being accepted for 14 wounded veterans to embark on a seven-day Grand Canyon Expedition, rafting on the Colorado River and hiking up the Bright Angel Trail. Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) will sponsor the expedition, which is designed to help veterans overcome barriers and live fuller lives. No Barriers USA will run the expedition itself.

Nominations will be accepted until July 8 and the expedition will take place October 15-23, 2016.

“I’ve seen firsthand how No Barriers provides life-changing opportunities to men and women who have sacrificed so much for their country,” said Raytheon Missile Systems President Taylor W. Lawrence. “Raytheon provides vital support to our warfighters, both on and off the battlefield.”

This expedition is free for the selected veterans, who may represent any military branch. Eligible participants must be wounded warriors residing in Arizona, Texas, New Mexico or Southern California.

“We’ve repeatedly witnessed how the Grand Canyon Wilderness Expedition positively impacts our participants and continues to resonate in their lives,” said John Toth, No Barriers Warrior director. “That’s the best work of the partnership between No Barriers Warriors and Raytheon.”

This is the third year Raytheon has sponsored an expedition in partnership with No Barriers. To nominate a veteran or for more information, visit https://raytheon.nobarrierswarriors.org/.