Labor growth returns, but momentum remains uneven.

(November 13, 2025) — Despite the government shutdown, private-sector employment remains an essential barometer for investors and policymakers. The latest ADP National Employment Report showed a modest rebound in October, with private employers adding 42,000 positions after two months of contraction. Gains were concentrated in the trade, transportation, and utilities sectors—reflecting improved supply chain fluidity and renewed business confidence.

However, most other industries either shed jobs or posted negligible growth. ADP data also indicated that wage gains have flattened mainly in 2025, suggesting a cooling labor market. While the recent uptick offers a brief reprieve from recession concerns, underlying employment conditions remain fragile—likely reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate-cut trajectory unless job creation becomes more broadly based.

Seasonal Hiring Reflects Mounting Worker Pressure

Interest in temporary and part-time roles has risen sharply. Indeed reported a 27 percent year-over-year increase in job seeker interest for seasonal positions at the end of September—up 50 percent from 2023 levels. Yet postings for these jobs grew just 2.7 percent over the same period, signaling an imbalance between worker demand and employer hiring.

The San Francisco Federal Reserve noted that the share of involuntary part-time workers rose from 30 percent in 2023 to 38 percent by August 2025, underscoring labor market slack and increasing worker vulnerability. Many households that rely on holiday-season employment may find fewer opportunities, limiting disposable income growth among lower-income consumers. Retailers such as Target have already announced plans to rely more on existing staff to meet holiday demand.

Layoffs Concentrated Among Large Firms, But Still Below Crisis Levels

Corporate downsizing accelerated in October. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that announced layoffs reached their highest monthly total since 2003, with major employers such as Amazon, General Motors, and Paramount initiating reductions. Even so, total job cuts remain below recessionary thresholds.

Through the first 10 months of 2025, announced layoffs exceeded 1 million—the largest year-to-date tally since 2020, but still roughly half the rate recorded during the 2009 downturn. Larger employers remain comparatively resilient; ADP data showed these firms added more than 70,000 jobs in October, while smaller businesses continued to post net losses.

White-Collar Job Losses Pose a Risk to Consumer Spending

Labor market weakness is beginning to reach higher-income segments. The information and professional services sectors have both registered job declines for three consecutive months. Because upper-income households have sustained much of the nation’s discretionary spending, this softening could temper consumption trends in the months ahead.

Luxury retailers may face reduced sales momentum, while high-end multifamily properties could experience slower lease-up velocity as employment uncertainty impacts higher-earning renters.

Trade Easing Supports Industrial Activity on the West Coast

Recent progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations has added a modest tailwind for logistics and industrial markets. China has agreed to lower its tariff on U.S. goods from 24 percent to 10 percent, while the United States has paused additional hikes, maintaining its current 25 percent rate.

This detente has bolstered West Coast port volumes, which have rebounded following a mid-year slowdown, and likely contributed to hiring strength within the trade, transportation, and utilities sectors. Improved trade clarity could further support warehouse leasing demand, which reached its highest level in more than a year during the third quarter.

Labor Highlights (Through October 2025):

• 597,000 jobs added year-to-date*
• 20,000 average monthly job gains over the past six months

*ADP private-sector employment only; excludes government jobs

Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; ADP National Employment Report; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.; CME Group; CoStar Group, Inc.; Federal Reserve; Indeed Hiring Lab; Moody’s Analytics; Real Capital Analytics; RealPage, Inc.

Read the full research brief here: Employment

TUCSON, AZ (November 12, 2025) — Enterprise Financial Services Corp (Nasdaq: EFSC), the holding company of Enterprise Bank & Trust (EB&T), has completed the acquisition of twelve branches from First Interstate Bank (Nasdaq: FIBK), marking a significant expansion of Enterprise’s presence across Arizona and the greater Kansas City metropolitan area.

The transaction adds ten Arizona branches—including new locations in Tucson, North Scottsdale, Old Town Scottsdale, Chandler, Maricopa, Casa Grande, Eloy, Coolidge, Globe, and Nogales—and two in Kansas, bringing approximately $300 million in loans and $645 million in deposits under the EB&T umbrella. Following the acquisition, Enterprise now manages roughly $17 billion in total assets.

James B. Lally, President and CEO of Enterprise, said, “The addition of these branches allows us to expand our access to existing markets with attractive growth opportunities. We believe this transaction will help us meet the needs of our new and existing customers while delivering long-term value for our shareholders.”

The newly acquired facilities have been fully converted into Enterprise Bank & Trust offices, providing former First Interstate customers with access to Enterprise’s full suite of commercial and retail banking products and services.

In Tucson, the transaction includes the 8,008-square-foot office building at 3002 N. Campbell Avenue, which was purchased by Enterprise Bank & Trust from First Interstate Bank for $1.92 million in October 2025.

Janney Montgomery Scott LLC and Holland & Knight LLP served as financial and legal advisors, respectively, to Enterprise on the acquisition.

Enterprise Bank & Trust, a subsidiary of Enterprise Financial Services Corp, operates across Arizona, California, Florida, Kansas, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico, offering business and personal banking, SBA lending, and wealth management services.

For more information, visit www.enterprisebank.com.

See RED Comp #12151 for Tucson sale.

TUCSON, AZ (November 11, 2025) — The Tohono O’odham Ki: Ki Association, the tribally affiliated homebuilding organization that develops and manages housing for members of the Tohono O’odham Nation, has acquired two adjoining parcels at 6725 and 6765 South Headley Road in Pima County for a new residential community. The Nation paid $2.24 million ($3.40 PSF) for the land.

Together, the parcels total approximately 15.1 acres and are identified. The Pima County Board of Supervisors approved a rezoning and development plan for the property in late 2023, paving the way for a 69-lot single-family subdivision that will expand homeownership opportunities for members of the Nation in the Tucson area.

The project site, situated southwest of Valencia and Indian Agency Road, is located within an established residential corridor, offering proximity to schools, retail, and public services. According to county records, the rezoning from SR (Suburban Ranch) to CR-5 (Single Residence) was finalized by ordinance on March 19, 2024, following environmental and infrastructure reviews.

The Tohono O’odham Ki:Ki Association, headquartered in Sells, Arizona, has a long history of building and rehabilitating homes across the Nation’s districts. The Headley Road subdivision will mark one of its most significant off-reservation housing efforts in Pima County, part of a broader strategy to meet rising demand for modern, energy-efficient housing for tribal members living and working in the Tucson metro area.

The development timeline has not yet been announced, but preliminary plans indicate that infrastructure work and lot preparation will begin once engineering permits are secured.

Source: RED Comp #12154.