Can Fed nominee Yellen end QE and not break anything?

janet yellenThe best review on the job facing Fed nominee Yellen as Chairman of the Federal Reserve comes from our neighbors to the north, go to the Canadian Business Press for the full story…

Barring any last-minute hitch, Janet Yellen will soon take the wheel at the U.S. Federal Reserve. While that raises questions about how monetary policy may change, for banks and their investors there is another issue: Who will be riding shotgun with her on regulatory policy?

Facing a squad of U.S. senators firing question upon question, Janet Yellen might have been surprised that no one asked her the obvious one: Can the Federal Reserve taper its $85-billion-a-month asset purchase program without compromising the housing recovery?

Yellen breezed through questions about the financial crisis, the Fed’s stimulus efforts and banking regulation, as the Senate Banking Committee weighed her nomination to serve as future head of the Federal Reserve.

While a few senators raised concerns about the more than $3 trillion in stimulus the Fed has been injecting into the U.S. economy, Yellen defended the central bank with ease, often pointing to high unemployment as her top concern above all else.

“This is a virtually unprecedented situation,” she said, referring to the 4 million Americans who have remained unemployed for more than six months. “We know that those long spells of unemployment are particularly painful for households, impose great hardship and costs on those without work, on the marriages of those who suffer these long unemployment spells,” she added. “So I consider it imperative that we do what we can to promote a very strong recovery.”

In her first congressional hearing as nominee to become the world’s most powerful central banker, Yellen didn’t seem in a hurry to scale back the Fed’s massive bond buys, known as quantitative easing (QE). There is no evidence that the policy, which encourages borrowing by keeping long-term interest rates low, has inflated dangerous bubbles in the stock market and residential real estate, she said. She did acknowledge, however, that QE “cannot go on forever.” And when the time comes for the exit, the masterful trick she will have to perform is letting rates appreciate while preserving the housing momentum.

It’s a tall order, even for a central banker as experienced as Yellen, who has been the Fed’s vice-chair until now. The housing market revival, propelled by cheap mortgages, has been a tailwind for the entire economy. The Fed’s mere mention of trimming QE, though, sent mortgage rates up by a full percentage point this summer. Home sales fell, and real estate prices cooled.

Still, there are at least two reasons to think that Yellen can have her cake and eat it too—that is, oversee higher long-term rates and a healthy housing market. For one, homes in most of the U.S. “are still the deal of the decade,” says TD economist Beata Caranci. Let’s say that, over the next two years, the QE taper pushes rates on the most popular 30-year mortgages up to 5.5%, from 4.5% today, and home price growth slows to 5% year-over-year from the current 12%. Financing a home purchase in most of the U.S. would still be cheaper or in line with what it was through the pre-bubble 1990–2003 period, says Caranci.

Rising interest rates could also paradoxically make it easier for some first-time homebuyers to qualify for a mortgage. Rattled by the financial crisis, lenders have avoided new mortgage applicants to focus on homeowners refinancing existing mortgages. After last summer’s mortgage rate hike, though, refinancing activity dropped 60%. That may explain why some banks have loosened lending standards, as the Fed’s latest bank lending survey shows. Yellen’s task, it seems, is unenviable but not impossible.

 




Dec. 13 Workforce Investment Board meeting to focus on Entrepreneurship in Pima County

pimacountyworkforce“Entrepreneurship in Pima County” will be the topic addressed by a panel at the Pima County Workforce Investment Board meeting on Friday, Dec. 13. The meeting is also the Workforce Investment Board’s and Pima County One-Stop Career Center’s 4th annual appreciation event for local employers and partners. The new 2012-2013 Workforce Investment Board annual report on workforce development in Pima County will be distributed.

The Entrepreneurship panel members are:

George also led a task force of 23 leaders formed to develop recommendations for a new economic engine – the Entrepreneurial Economy for Tucson. The task force’s report is available on the Tucson Regional Economic Organization’s (TREO) website.

The meeting is 8-10 a.m. at Holiday Inn Hotel & Suites, 4550 S. Palo Verde Road, and is open to the public. Please RSVP to Margie Wright at [email protected] by Thursday, Dec. 5.

The Pima County Workforce Investment Board is appointed by the Pima County Board of Supervisors to provide recommendations on local workforce policy and oversight of the Pima County One-Stop Career Center. The board includes representatives of local businesses, nonprofits and educational institutions. One-Stop works with employers in local growth, high-demand industry occupations to address their current and future workforce needs.

Business leaders in the fields of biotechnology, logistics and aerospace who are interested in becoming members of the Workforce Investment Board are encouraged to contact Board Chairman Gregg Johnson at 520-239-5275 or [email protected].

For more information, and to see the DRAFT Pima County WIA Five Year Plan please visit the Workforce Investment Board online.

 




Real Estate Daily News Buzz – December 3, 2013

Reserve & White house Real Estate Daily NewsReal Estate Daily News Buzz is designed to give news snippets to readers that our (yet to be award winning) editors thought you could use to start your day. They come from various business perspectives, real estate, government, the Fed, local news, and the stock markets to save you time. Here you will find the headlines and what the news buzz for the day will be.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 77.64 points, or 0.5%, to 16,008.77 on Monday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index dropped 4.91 points, or 0.3%, to 1,800.90. The NASDAQ composite fell 14.63 points, or 0.4%, to 4,045.26. Benchmark U.S. crude for January delivery rose $1.10, or 1.2%, at $93.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

SUPREME COURT WON’T STAND IN WAY OF NY’S INTERNET TAX
WASHINGTON (AP) — On perhaps the busiest online shopping day of the year, the Supreme Court refused to wade into a dispute over state sales taxes for purchases on websites like Amazon.com, an outcome likely to prompt more states to attempt to collect taxes on Internet sales. Monday’s court action means “it might be the last Cyber Monday without sales tax,” said Joseph Henchman of the Washington-based Tax Foundation. It’s all part of a furious battle — also including legislation in Congress — among Internet sellers, millions of buyers, aggrieved brick-and-mortar stores and states hungry for billions of dollars in extra tax revenue. The high court turned away appeals from Amazon.com LLC and Overstock.com Inc. in their fight against a New York court decision forcing them to remit sales tax the same way in-state businesses do. This could hurt online shopping in that state, since one of the attractions of Internet purchasing is the lack of a state sales tax. That makes some items a little cheaper than they would be inside a store on the corner.

AMERICANS POWER UP AND SHOP ON CYBER MONDAY
NEW YORK (AP) — Millions of Americans took advantage of online deals ranging from free shipping to hundreds of dollars off electronics and half-price clothing Monday, which was expected to be the busiest online shopping day of the year. The spending surge on so-called Cyber Monday came after a disappointing holiday weekend in stores. And it showed that Americans are increasingly comfortable buying items on tablets and smartphones. Early results showed online shopping was up 18.7 per cent compared with the same time last year, according to figures by IBM Benchmark. Mobile traffic, which includes smartphones and tablets, accounted for 30 per cent of all online traffic.

HILTON ONE OF BIFFEST IPOs COULD RAISE $2.4 BILLION
NEW YORK (AP) — Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. said Monday that it could raise as much as $2.37 billion, making it one of the year’s biggest IPOs. The hotel operator said in a regulatory filing that the offering of 112.8 million shares is expected to price between $18 and $21 each. Hilton is offering about 64.1 million shares, and selling shareholders are offering 48.7 million shares. Selling additional shares to banks could put the IPO’s proceeds at as much as $2.72 billion. The initial public offering comes as the hotel industry has started to recover over the past two years from its battering during the recession and as the IPO market heats up. Roughly 200 companies have gone public in 2013 as markets hit record highs.

AMAZON.COM SEES DELIVERY DRONES AS FUTURE
NEW YORK (AP) — Amazon is working on a way to get packages to customers in 30 minutes or less — via self-guided drone. Consider it the modern version of a pizza delivery boy, minus the awkward teenager. Amazon.com Inc. says it’s working on the so-called Prime Air unmanned aircraft project but it will take years to advance the technology and for the Federal Aviation Administration to create the necessary rules and regulations.

PILOT USE OF AUTOMATION EYED IN AIR CRASHES
WASHINGTON (AP) — Pilots are becoming so reliant on computer systems that do most of the flying in today’s airliners that on the rare occasions when something goes wrong, they’re sometimes unprepared to take control, according to aviation safety experts and government and industry studies. Increasing automation has been a tremendous safety boon to aviation, contributing to historically low accident rates in the U.S. and many parts of the world. But automation has changed the relationship between pilots and planes, presenting new challenges.

US MANUFACTURING GREW AT FASTEST PACE IN 2 1/2 YEARS IN NOVEMBER
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. manufacturing grew in November at the fastest pace in 2 1/2 years as factories ramped up production, stepped up hiring and received orders at a healthy clip. The Institute for Supply Management said Monday that its index of manufacturing activity rose to 57.3. That was up from 56.4 in October and was the highest since April 2011. A reading above 50 signals growth. One component of the index, a measure of hiring, rose to its highest level in nearly 18 months. And a gauge of export orders reached its highest level in nearly two years. Overseas demand is benefiting from modest recoveries in Europe, Japan and China.

US CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP 0.8% IN OCTOBER
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. developers boosted construction spending in October at the fastest pace in more than four years, propelled by a surge in government projects. But spending on home construction and commercial projects both fell. Overall construction spending increased 0.8% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $908.4 billion, the Labor Department said Monday. That’s up from September, when spending fell 0.3%. The October pace was the best since May 2009 and was driven by a 3.9% surge in public spending. Federal spending increased 10.9 per cent, suggesting the 16-day partial government shutdown had little impact on public projects.

DOW CHEMICAL LOOKING TO SPIN OFF, SELL 40 PLANTS
MIDLAND, Mich. (AP) — Dow Chemical is looking to spin off or sell about 40 manufacturing plants from its business as it continues to move away from cyclical commodity products. The company said Monday that it expects those deals to happen within the next one to two years. Almost 2,000 workers will be affected by the moves. The businesses generate up to $5 billion of total annual revenue.

FOREST LABS TO CUT 500 JOBS IN $500 MILLION RESTRUCTURING
NEW YORK (AP) — Forest Laboratories says it plans to cut about 500 jobs as part of a plan to trim $500 million in costs over the next two years. The drugmaker also plans to buy back at least $400 million in company stock and agreed to pay $240 million for the U.S. marketing rights to Saphris, a Merck & Co. drug used to treat schizophrenia and bipolar mania. The moves come less than three months after former Bausch & Lomb leader Brenton Saunders replaced longtime CEO Howard Solomon at the helm of Forest Laboratories Inc.

BLACKBERRY HEAD SAYS COMPANY IS ‘VERY MUCH ALIVE’
TORONTO (AP) — BlackBerry’s interim chief executive said Monday that reports of the death of the company “are greatly exaggerated.” Former Sybase CEO John Chen said in a letter to customers that BlackBerry is returning to its roots, refocusing on delivering devices and services to business users. Chen was brought in as the interim chief executive and executive chair after talks to sell the company collapsed last month.

PUBLIC MEETINGS SCHEDULED FOR PIMA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN

Pima County is inviting residents to attend one of the upcoming public meetings to give input to the 10-year update of the County’s Comprehensive Plan. There are seven schedules for December and more public meetings are to follow in January. The County anticipates a draft to be ready by late Spring. The first meeting, held Monday evening was attended by about a dozen people and almost as many County staff member there who answered questions and facilitated getting comments. These meetings are opportunities to give ideas on creating a vibrant future for our region. Please plan to attend one of these community meetings to learn more and share your ideas:

  • Monday, Dec. 2
    6-7:30 p.m. at Nanini Library, 7300 N. Shannon Road
  • Tuesday, Dec. 3
    6-7:30 p.m. at Empire High School Library, 10701 E. Mary Ann Cleveland Way
  • Thursday, Dec. 5
    10 a.m.-noon at Cow Palace Restaurant, 28802 S. Nogales Highway (Interstate 19 and 48W exit)
  • Thursday, Dec. 5
    5:30-7 p.m. at The Journey, an Evangelical Free Church, 4700 N. Swan Road
  • Monday, Dec. 9
    5:30-7 p.m. at Sam Lena – South Tucson Library, 1607 S. Sixth Ave.
  • Tuesday, Dec. 10
    6-7:30 p.m. at Tanque Verde Lutheran Church, 8625 E. Tanque Verde Road
  • Wednesday, Dec. 11
    5:30-7 p.m. at Drexel Heights Baptist Church, 2802 W. Mossman Road

For more information, or for individuals with disabilities who require special accommodations, please contact Lindsey at 520-885-9009 or [email protected].  You can also share your ideas and join the conversation about Pima County’s future online. Click on the “Sign up to participate”.