Industrial Sector Poised for Growth By Several Measures Locally and Nationally

former Texas Instruments complex , 6730 S Tucson Blvd
former Texas Instruments complex , 6730 S Tucson Blvd

September saw robust investor interest and activity among small users for industrial properties representing 40% of the commercial transactions in Pima County for the month, an aggregate of almost $11 million. Of these sales, most were cash and carryback buyers, with uses ranging from space for personal collections to small business expansion.  Investors are speculating industrial lease opportunities, which were also on the rise in 3Q.

According to new research from Cushman & Wakefield in New York City, despite the notion that manufacturing has basically left the United States, the industrial sector—by several measures—is alive and well. Nationwide, through the third quarter, warehouses have experienced fourteen consecutive quarters of declining vacancies. The momentum is supported by continued strong leasing velocity and absorption, and construction levels that already have surpassed last year’s total.

With indicators of equipment acquisition and economic optimism trending positive in the September 2013 data, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation (ELFF) expects some acceleration in the second half of the year, despite slowdowns in the first and second quarters. ELFF forecasts a 4.8% growth in equipment investment this year. This number is actually quite marked from last year, having jumped 5.2% in the first half of the year. By contrast, it also notes the U.S. economy still facing stiff challenges, and predicts the U.S. economy to see a modest 2% growth rate.

The other factors pointing to a recovery in the second half of the year for this sector is increased economic optimism coupled with improving credit markets that are providing businesses with easier access to credit.

The uptick is due to renewed consumer confidence, contends John Morris of Cushman & Wakefield. “Pent-up consumer demand for housing, automobiles, appliances and other less durable goods have translated to increased spending in 2013. As corporations respond, we have seen a jump in demand, especially for distribution space. With the continued ecommerce boom, online retailers have become the fastest-growing segment of warehouse occupiers. At the same time, traditional brick-and-mortar retailers continue to drive demand, with companies like Walmart and Home Depot among the most active.”

Industrial leasing volume increased in the third quarter and strength is broad based, Southern California, Dallas and Chicago were particularly strong. Greater Los Angeles continued to lead the nation with 28.1 million square feet leased year-to-date, followed by Chicago with 24.4 million square feet. Twelve of the 37 markets tracked by Cushman & Wakefield have reported increased activity in 2013, including 11 that experienced double-digit annual increases. Northern New Jersey posted a 37% year-over-year leasing increase, while Dallas/Fort Worth recorded a 28.2% increase.

To read the more of the Tucson report as published in the October TAR Scorecard click here.

To read the Cushman & Wakefield report as published in GlobeSt.com click here.




NAR: September Home Sales Drop with Less Affordability

NAR LOgoAfter hitting the highest level in nearly four years, existing-home sales declined in September, but limited inventory conditions continued to pressure home prices in much of the country, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million in September from a downwardly revised 5.39 million in August, but are 10.7% above the 4.78 million-unit pace in September 2012. Sales have remained above year-ago levels for the past 27 months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a decline was expected. “Affordability has fallen to a five-year low as home price increases easily outpaced income growth,” he said. “Expected rising mortgage interest rates will further lower affordability in upcoming months.  Next month we may see some delays associated with the government shutdown.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.49% in September from 4.46% in August, and is the highest since July 2011 when it was 4.55%; the rate was 3.47% in September 2012.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $199,200 in September, up 11.7% from September 2012. This is the 10th consecutive month of double-digit year-over-year increases.

Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 14% of September sales, up from 12% in August, which was the lowest share since monthly tracking began in October 2008; they were 24% in September 2012. Lower levels in the share of distressed sales account for some of the growth in median price.

Nine percent of September sales were foreclosures, and 5% were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16% below market value in September, while short sales were discounted 12%.

Data from realtor.com, NAR’s listing site, show some of the strongest increases in listing price from a year ago are in the Detroit area, up 44.6%; Las Vegas, up 30.7%; and Sacramento, up 28.9%.

Total housing inventory at the end of September was unchanged at 2.21 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.0-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with a 4.9-month supply in August. Unsold inventory is 1.8% above a year ago, when there was a 5.4-month supply.

NAR President Gary Thomas, broker-owner of Evergreen Realty in Villa Park, Calif., said there are far-ranging consequences from the repeating stalemates in Washington. “Just one impact of the recent government shutdown – delays in tax transcripts needed for approval of mortgage loans – put a monkey wrench in the transaction process and could negatively impact sales closings in next month’s report,” he said.

Thomas said flood insurance also is a concern. “Realtors® report that approximately 10% of transactions in September were located in flood zones, and that nearly one out of 10 of those transactions were delayed or canceled due to concerns over rising insurance rates.” Notably higher flood insurance rates went into effect on October 1, and could impact future sales in flood zones.

The median time on market for all homes was 50 days in September, up from 43 days in August, but much faster than the 70 days on market in September 2012. Short sales were on the market for a median of 93 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 43 days, and non-distressed homes took 49 days. Thirty-nine percent of homes sold in September were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers accounted for 28% of purchases in September, unchanged from August, but down from 32% in September 2012.

All-cash sales comprised 33% of transactions in September, up from 32% in August, and 28% in September 2012. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 19% of homes in September, up from 17% in August, and 18% in September 2012. Last month, 74% of investors paid cash.

Single-family home sales slipped 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in September from 4.75 million in August, but are 10.9% above the 4.22 million-unit pace in September 2012. The median existing single-family home price was $199,300 in September, which is 11.4% higher than a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 4.7% to an annual rate of 610,000 units in September from 640,000 in August, but are 8.9% above the 560,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $198,600 in September, up 14.2% from September 2012.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 2.8% to an annual rate of 690,000 in September, but are 15.0% above September 2012. The median price in the Northeast was $240,900, up 2.3% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 5.3% in September to a pace of 1.25 million, but are 12.6% higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $158,400, which is 9.0% above September 2012.

In the South, existing-home sales declined 1.4% to an annual level of 2.10 million in September, but are 9.9% above September 2012. The median price in the South was $171,600, up 13.9% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 1.6% to a pace of 1.25 million in September, and are 7.8% higher than a year ago. With ongoing inventory restrictions, the median price in the West rose to $286,300, which is 16.8% above September 2012.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

For additional commentary and consumer information, visit www.houselogic.com and https://retradio.com.




REAL ESTATE DAILY NEWS BUZZ – OCTOBER 23, 2013

Reserve & White house Real Estate Daily NewsReal Estate Daily News Buzz  is designed to give news snippets to readers that our (yet to be award winning) editors thought you could use to start your day. They come from various business perspectives, real estate, government, the Fed, local news, and the stock markets to save you time. Here you will find the headlines and what the news buzz for the day will be.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 10.01 points, or 0.6%, to close at 1,754.67. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75.46 points, or 0.5%, to 15,467.66. The NASDAQ composite was up 9.52 points, or 0.2%, at 3,929.57.

Benchmark U.S. crude for November delivery dropped $1.42. or 1.4%, to close at $97.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

SLUGGISH HIRING SHOWS EFFECTS OF BUDGET IMPASSE

WASHINGTON (AP) — A dim view of the U.S. job market emerged Tuesday with a report that employers cut back on hiring in September just before a partial government shutdown began. Just 148,000 jobs were added last month, a steep drop from August’s gain, though they were enough to lower unemployment to 7.2% from 7.3% in August. The report bolsters expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its pace of bond purchases for the rest of 2013 to try to keep long-term loan rates low.The government’s release of the September jobs report had been delayed 2 1/2 weeks by the shutdown. Temporary layoffs during the 16-day shutdown will probably depress October’s job gain. That means a clear picture of the job market won’t emerge before November jobs figures are issued in December.

MORE CITIES USING BONDS TO SHORE UP PENSIONS, BUT EXPERTS WARN AGAINST THE PRACTICE

Despite what finance experts say is a significant risk, cities across the nation are borrowing money to bolster their employee retirement accounts. Nashville was the latest to consider such a move, but Mayor Karl Dean’s administration withdrew the proposal last week after intense criticism. The city had considered borrowing $200 million to help reduce nearly $400 million of unfunded liability in its pension plan. Elsewhere this year, the Connecticut towns of Hamden and Stratford agreed this year to borrow up to $125 million and $220 million, respectively, via pension obligation bonds. Fort Lauderdale issued $337 million in bonds last year to cover $400 million of unfunded liability in two separate retirement funds. Oakland, the city believed to have issued the first pension obligation bond in 1985, again used them last year to pump more than $200 million into the city’s retirement account for police and firefighters.  from USA Today

TSA BEGINS EXPEDITED CHECK-IN SERVICE AT TUCSON IINTERNATIONAL

TUCSON – Airline passengers can now take advantage of expedited “PreCheck” screening lanes at Tucson International Airport that don’t require them to take off their shoes and belts or open their laptop cases. The TSA this week opened a PreCheck lane on the B Concourse at the airport during peak morning hours. A second PreCheck, on the A Concourse, should be open by the end of October.

HUD THREATENS TO PULL ARIZONA HOUSING AID

TEMPE – The federal Department of Housing and Urban Development is threatening to pull all federal housing aid to Arizona unless it limits the number of hearing-impaired residents to 18 people at an apartment complex built specifically for the deaf, Fox News reports. HUD, which approved and helped fund the project in 2008, now says Apache ASL Trails in Tempe violates civil rights law — because it shows a preference for the hearing-impaired. The agency said it won’t forcibly remove current residents, but wants many of the 74 units to be blocked off to deaf residents in the future once they leave. For the full story, click here.

AV HOMES EXPANDIN INTO CAROLINAS MARKET

PHOENIX – AV Homes Inc. is expanding into the Carolinas market with a new division office led by Bill Kiselick. This announcement coincides with AV Homes’ first land purchase in North Carolina, reports website Building Online. AV Homes purchased a 650-unit active adult community in the planned 357-acre mixed-use development of Bethpage in Durham. In addition, the Scottsdale homebuilder announced the purchase of 86 home sites in the Cortessa master-planned community in metropolitan Phoenix. The new community will be marketed under the name “Mountain Trails at Cortessa.” The community will offer single and two-story homes ranging in size from 1,560 to 3,600 square feet with an estimated starting price in the $160s. Home sales are expected to begin in December.

HAWAIIAN COMPANY AWARDED $7.8 M DAVIS MONTHAN CONTRACT

TUCSON – The Hawaii-based health care staffing company Kuhana Associates, LLC was awarded a contract modification worth a maximum of $7.8 million for providing health care workers at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base southeast of downtown Tucson.   Pacific Business News reports that the work is expected to be completed by Sept. 30.

JOHNSON BANK CLOSING FOUR OF NINE BRANCHES IN ARISONA

PHOENIX – Johnson Bank said Thursday it plans to close four of its nine branches in Arizona in a cost-cutting move. The announcement that the bank will close branches in Phoenix, Mesa, Peoria and Rio Verde on Jan. 8 comes about two weeks after Racine-based Johnson Bank said it planned to shut down three branches in Wisconsin. Branches in Lake Geneva, Sheboygan and Racine are set to close Dec. 17. The closings and consolidations will affect about 12 employees in Arizona and 12 in Wisconsin, the bank said.

CHAIN STORE SALES RISE 4% IN SEPTEMBER

Stronger than expected consumer demand in September spurred a 4 percent year over year rise in chain store sales, according to projections from the International Council of Shopping Centers. Drug store sales catapulted to the top of the chain store market, rising 6 percent. “The drug store segment posted its strongest monthly showing since April 2007,” says Michael P. Niemira, vice president of research and chief economist at ICSC. “This seemingly heralds the full recovery of this segment after an extended period of weakness.” Comparable store sales are predicted to jump another 3 percent to 4 percent in October. However, the now diverted government shutdown that loomed over consumers the first half of this month may contribute to a weaker sales forecast going forward. from ICSC newsletter

APPLE UNVEILS NEW MACS, iPAD AHEAD OF HOLIDAYS

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Apple Inc. is refreshing its iPad lineup and slashing the price of its Mac computers ahead of the holiday shopping season, as it faces an eroding tablet market share and growing competition from rival gadget makers. The company unveiled a new, thinner, lighter tablet called the “iPad Air” along with a slew of new Macs Tuesday at an event in San Francisco.The product reveal comes as iPad’s market share has been eroding, compared with cheaper rivals running Google Inc.’s Android operating system. Research firm Gartner Inc. estimates that Android tablets will end 2013 with a 50% share of the worldwide market versus 49 per cent for the iPad. Just two years ago, the iPad commanded a 65% market share compared to 30% for Android tablets.

NY COMPTROLLER: WALL STREET PROFITS MAY SLOW

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — Though Wall Street recorded $10.1 billion in profits for the first half of 2013, New York’s comptroller said Tuesday that federal budget dithering, higher interest rates and litigation may slow earnings for the last half in a securities industry that’s kept trimming jobs. In a report, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli projected that overall earnings will be limited to $15 billion this year, compared with $23.9 billion last year, but still part of the rebound from the 2008 crash of the financial markets and the national recession.