WASHINGTON, (November 20, 2013) – Positive retail sales numbers in the month of October point to a good holiday sales season ahead. According to the National Retail Federation – the world largest retail trade association – October retail sales, excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, increased 2.5 percent seasonally adjusted over September, and 4.2 percent unadjusted from 2012. (The retail sector will need to produce $10 billion in sales each remaining day of this holiday season to generate the 3.9% sales growth estimated by the National Retail Federation.)
“Consumer spending is growing as we head into the holiday shopping season and the timing couldn’t be better,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Consumers seem to have found some sense of confidence, driven, in part, by lower gas prices. While positive gains were seen in most retail categories, retailers will continue to rely on heavy promotions to drive traffic and sales this holiday season.”
“We remain optimistic that retailers will experience a healthy holiday season, but we also remain steadfast in our belief that Congress and the administration need to work together on policies that bolster confidence in our economy, spurring capital investment and job growth by business owners large and small,” Shay said. “This is key in order to sustain long term economic recovery that is currently being led by the retail industry.”
October retail sales, released today by the U.S. Census Bureau, which include non-general merchandise categories such as automobiles, gasoline stations, and restaurants, increased 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month, and 3.9 percent adjusted year-over-year.
“The ever-resilient consumer continues to deliver better economic news,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Various retail segments contributed to this month’s growth showing that there is an ongoing pent-up demand by consumers. Confidence and sales should continue to improve. As the holiday season draws closer and closer, NRF remains confident in a good holiday shopping and sales season, which will be in line with our forecast.”
In October, NRF released its holiday sales forecast, which indicated a 3.9 percent increase in sales for the months of November and December over 2012. NRF believes that holiday sales will reach $602.1 billion this year. The retail sector will need to produce $10 billion in sales each day this holiday season to generate the 3.9% sales growth estimated by the National Retail Federation. The forecast is higher than the 10-year average holiday sales growth of 3.3 percent.
Other findings from the September retail sales report include:
• Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers stores’ sales decreased 1.9 percent seasonally-adjusted yet increased 4.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
• Clothing and clothing accessories stores’ sales increased 1.4 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 4.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
• Electronics and appliance stores’ sales increased 1.4 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 5.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
• Furniture and home furnishing stores’ sales increased 1.0 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 8.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
• General merchandise stores’ sales increased 0.2 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 1.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
• Health and personal care stores’ sales increased 0.5 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 5.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
• Nonstore retailers’ sales increased 0.4 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 8.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
• Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores’ sales increased 1.6 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and 5.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
As the world’s largest retail trade association and the voice of retail worldwide, NRF represents retailers of all types and sizes, including chain restaurants and industry partners, from the United States and more than 45 countries abroad. Retailers operate more than 3.6 million U.S. establishments that support one in four U.S. jobs – 42 million working Americans. Contributing $2.5 trillion to annual GDP, retail is a daily barometer for the nation’s economy. For more information visit www.nrf.com
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