By: Ellie Perlman, founder of Blue Lake Capital, a REIT specializing in multifamily investing

(December 24, 2024) — As a passive multifamily investor, you’re always looking for ways to safeguard and grow your wealth, regardless of the political landscape. With Donald Trump re-elected to office, the real estate market may experience some significant shifts, presenting both opportunities and challenges. Here’s what you need to know to make informed decisions and stay ahead in this evolving environment.

Understanding the ‘Trump Bump’

Historically, Trump’s pro-business policies have emphasized deregulation, tax incentives, and infrastructure investment, which can create favorable conditions for real estate markets. During his previous tenure, we saw increased demand for real estate development in urban and suburban areas as the economy expanded. Passive investors should consider:

• Potential Economic Growth: Policies promoting business expansion and tax cuts may drive job creation, leading to higher demand for rental properties.
• Reduced Regulation: Looser regulations on construction and development could accelerate the approval of new projects, potentially increasing inventory in some markets. However, this could also be challenged in other factors we’ll discuss below.
• Interest Rate Outlook: While the Federal Reserve operates independently, market speculation on Trump’s influence could affect borrowing costs. Investors should watch for rate stability or reductions that could favor multifamily acquisitions.

Potential Impact of Decreased Housing Supply on Multifamily Investments with Trump

One of the pressing challenges multifamily investors should monitor is the potential decrease in new housing supply due to shifts in construction costs and workforce availability. If tariffs on construction materials increase under the new administration, the cost of building new housing could rise sharply, making it less attractive for developers to initiate new projects. At the same time, stricter immigration policies and deportations could further strain an already limited construction labor force, leading to project delays and higher labor expenses.

For passive investors, these dynamics may have significant implications. A decrease in new housing supply could tighten rental markets, potentially driving up rents and boosting the performance of existing multifamily assets. However, the same supply constraints might discourage developers from launching new projects, reducing the overall growth pipeline in certain markets. Investors should consider these factors when evaluating new opportunities, focusing on markets where supply-demand dynamics remain favorable and partnering with sponsors who are experienced at navigating construction and operational challenges.

Navigating Market Volatility

While opportunities abound, political transitions often bring uncertainty. Passive investors can maintain stability by focusing on tried-and-true strategies:

1. Prioritize Stable Markets: Consider investing in markets with strong population growth, diversified economies, and limited new construction. Cities in Texas, the Carolinas, and the Southeast remain attractive due to favorable demographics and job growth.
2. Invest in Recession-Resilient Assets: Class B and C multifamily properties in high-demand areas often outperform during economic downturns. These properties cater to tenants who might “trade down” in uncertain times, ensuring steady occupancy rates.
3. Lean on Experienced Operators: Partnering with a seasoned sponsor who has navigated previous economic cycles can provide the insight and stability needed during market transitions.

The Role of Real Estate in Diversification

As a passive investor, diversification is your shield against volatility. Real estate offers unique advantages that other asset classes, like stocks and bonds, may not:

• Inflation Hedge: Multifamily assets typically see rental income rise with inflation, preserving purchasing power for investors.
• Cash Flow Consistency: Monthly or quarterly distributions from real estate investments provide predictable income, a rarity in turbulent financial markets.
• Tangible Value: Unlike stocks, real estate is a physical asset that doesn’t disappear overnight. Even in volatile times, its intrinsic value remains intact.

During political transitions, the diversification benefits of real estate become even more critical. Stocks may respond to short-term news cycles, but multifamily investments are grounded in long-term fundamentals like housing demand and demographic trends.

Positioning Yourself for Success
To maximize your success during this period:

1. Stay Educated: Follow market trends, policy announcements, and updates on key real estate metrics. Knowledge is your best tool in uncertain times.
2. Engage with Your Sponsor: A transparent and proactive sponsor will keep you informed about your investment’s performance and any adjustments needed.
3. Look for Tax Benefits: With potential extensions of Trump-era tax cuts, explore how to optimize depreciation, 1031 exchanges, and other real estate-focused tax strategies.

Final Thoughts

As we enter this new political chapter, real estate remains a pillar of stability and growth for passive investors. By understanding the ‘Trump Bump,’ preparing for market volatility, and leveraging real estate’s diversification benefits, you can confidently navigate these times and position your portfolio for long-term success.

Investing in multifamily real estate has always been about balancing risk with opportunity, and now is no different. The key is to remain focused on your financial goals, remain disciplined, and keep moving forward.

P.S. If one of your priorities, like mine, is building and preserving your wealth through multifamily real estate investments, click here to download my new eBook: The Ultimate Guide to Creating & Preserving Your Wealth.

 

TUCSON, Arizona (December 24, 2024) – Trend Report is pleased to announce the recipients of the 2024 Best-in- Class Broker® Awards for the third year, recognizing professionals who perform at the highest levels in commercial real estate sales in Pima County.

“It is my distinct pleasure to introduce the Top Real Estate Sales Brokers in Pima County for 2024, our Best-in-Class. These outstanding professionals have not only demonstrated exceptional sales performance but have also proven to be leaders in their field, consistently exceeding expectations in a competitive and ever-changing market in each commercial category,”  said Karen Schutte, co-founder and CEO of RED Comps and Managing Editor of Trend Report. “Please join me in celebrating the Best-in-Class Brokers for 2024, whose remarkable accomplishments have set a new benchmark for success in our industry!”

Trend Report’s Best-in-Class Brokers for 2024 are:

• Multifamily Sales (100+ units apartments): Clint Wadlund and Hamid Panahi of Marcus & Millichap (IPA)
• Multifamily Sales (<100 units apartments): Allan Mendelsberg and C. Joey Martinez of Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR
• Industrial Sales: Tim Healy of CBRE in Tucson
• Office: Isaac Figueroa, CCIM, SIOR, of Larsen Baker
• Retail: Jeremy Price of VOLK Company
• Residential Land Sales: Will White & John Carroll of Land Advisors Organization
• Industrial Land Sales: Jesse Blum of Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR
• Commercial Land Sales: Scott Soelter with NAI Horizon

Trend Report shares a close association with Real Estate Daily News and RED Comps, the most accurate, independently researched database of commercial real estate sales information available in Southern Arizona, so it is well-positioned to identify the top brokers in each commercial category.

RED Comps’ research team verifies and records all commercial real estate sales in Pima County. From that information, Trend Report can present the “no-nonsense” Best-in-Class Broker Awards to those individuals who closed the highest overall transaction sales volume for each market category each year. This year’s awards were calculated from Q4, 2023, to Q3, 2024, for a full year of sales.

These outstanding professionals have not only demonstrated exceptional sales performance but have also proven to be leaders in their field, consistently exceeding expectations in a competitive and ever-changing market.

Deal volume amounted to just over $1.67 billion for the period. The highest dollar volume was for multifamily, which achieved $394 million with 57 deals – a substantial number, but a 23.6% drop from $515 million in 2023. There was a total of 571 commercial properties traded for the period – 56 fewer than 2023’s 627.

Retail sales brought in the second highest volume, scoring $345 million – up by 13.4% YOY.

These top brokers being recognized have mastered the art of connecting clients with properties, navigating complex transactions, and delivering results with unmatched dedication. Their ability to anticipate market trends, utilize innovative technology, and provide personalized, strategic guidance has set them apart from their peers.

But it is not just about numbers. These brokers have built lasting relationships with their clients based on trust, integrity, and a passion for helping people make some of the most significant decisions of their lives—buying or selling real estate. Their commitment to professionalism and their tireless work ethic has earned them not only financial success but also the respect and admiration of their colleagues and clients alike.

As we look to 2025, we know these brokers will continue to raise the bar, pushing the boundaries of what’s possible and driving excellence in the real estate industry. Their achievements serve as a testament to their dedication, expertise, and commitment to the highest standards of service.

Among the winners are representatives from national real estate powerhouses such as Marcus & Millichap, Land Advisors Organization, CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, and top brokers of local firms in Southern Arizona. All winners must be based in Southern Arizona.

All Trend Report’s Best-in-Class Broker Awards are based exclusively on sales volume transaction data from the RED Comps commercial real estate database, the most accurate, independently researched database of commercial real estate property sales information.

These brokers will be honored at a Tucson-style happy hour in the new year and can use the Best-in-Class logo in all future correspondence.

MULTIFAMILY 100+ UNITS BEST-IN-CLASS BROKER TEAM

Clint A. Wadlund • Senior Vice President Investments, Marcus & Millichap

Located in Tucson, Arizona, Clint Wadlund is a market leader in the acquisition and disposition of multifamily assets. Utilizing his extensive regional knowledge and creative deal execution, Clint brings a unique competitive advantage to his clients, from large institutional investors to complex partnerships. He has contributed to billions of dollars’ worth of successful multifamily transactions across the Southwest. Clint holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Arizona. Clint was a 2022 and 2023 TREND report Best-in-Class winner.

Hamid Panahi • Senior Vice President Investments, Marcus & Millichap

Hamid is a real estate professional with a quantifiable record of success. One of Hamid’s strong suits is his ability to furnish his clients with precise and accurate information regarding the real estate market, empowering them to make informed decisions that ensure the protection and growth of their real estate assets. Hamid prides himself on his ability to facilitate communication that leads to an accurate understanding of his clients’ business and personal goals. Hamid takes a holistic approach to strategizing a plan to achieve these objectives. Hamid was a 2022 and 2023 TREND report Best-in-Class winner.

MULTIFAMILY <100 UNITS BEST-IN-CLASS BROKER TEAM

Allan Mendelsberg • Principal, Apartment & Investment Sales, Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR

Allan joined Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR in October of 2009. He concentrates on multi-family investments but also helps clients with manufactured housing and triple net (NNN) investments. He is a member of Southern Arizona’s most active multi-family brokerage team. Allan’s clients range from small private investors to large REITS. He attributes his success to being a client-first broker that looks one step ahead in the transaction process. Allan’s real estate career has earned him high praise from his clients, and he is known for his strong work ethic, strong communication and negotiation skills, and strong relationships in the real estate and banking (mortgage) industries. Allan continues to rank as one of Southern Arizona’s most active multi-family brokers. Allan previously worked for Marcus & Millichap for three years before joining PICOR. Allan was a 2022 and 2023 TREND report Best-in-Class winner.

Joey Martinez • Principal, Apartment & Investment Sales, Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR

Joey Martinez joined Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR’s multifamily brokerage team in October 2019. Since joining the team, Joey and his partner, Allan Mendelsberg, have closed over $350,000,000 in sales transactions. Joey has an in-depth approach to his business which includes developing long- term relationships with clients and phenomenal communication. Martinez is a graduate of New Mexico State University with a major in marketing and a minor in the PGA of America Professional Golf Managements Program. Prior to joining PICOR, Joey spent four years in a golf career which included playing professionally in over 80 pro events. He enjoys spending time with his wife (Tori) and son (Grady) and friends and family. During his free time, Joey loves golfing, pickleball, hunting, and traveling. On the philanthropic side, Joey devotes significant time to serving as a board member for Empower Coalition Inc., a Tucson-based non-profit that supports Veterans in Southern Arizona. Joey was a 2022 and 2023 TREND report Best-in-Class winner.

INDUSTRIAL BEST-IN-CLASS BROKER

Tim Healy • First Vice President at CBRE in Tucson

Tim Healy is a Senior Vice President at CBRE in Tucson, specializing in the sale and leasing of industrial properties, including manufacturing, warehouse/distribution, back office, and research and development. With over two decades of experience, Tim has been involved in all aspects of the industrial market including the acquisition, leasing, and disposition of corporate and investment properties.

Throughout his career, Tim has been involved in some of Tucson’s largest industrial transactions and represented a diverse range of clients. Some notable corporate transactions include FedEx Ground, Imperial Brown, Home Depot, Roche, Shamrock Foods, BASF and Securaplane, among others. He has successfully managed significant assignments such as the land purchase and lease- up for Southern Arizona Logistics Center and Tucson Commerce Center which are Tucson’s largest speculative developments ever, as well as the investment sale of Butterfield Tech Center I and II, Republic Services Recycling Plant, Valencia Commerce Center and Atlas Wire Facility.

Tim’s professional achievements include being recognized as CBRE’s Top Producer in Tucson from 2021 to 2024 and the top Tucson industrial broker during that same time. He is actively involved in various professional affiliations and has served on multiple boards and committees, including the Pima County Board of Adjustments and the Tucson Conquistadores.

OFFICE BEST-IN-CLASS BROKER

 Isaac Figueroa ccim, sior • Principal, Vice President at Larsen Baker, LLC

Isaac currently serves as a Principal and Vice President in charge of Leasing and Sales at Larsen Baker, LLC. Larsen Baker is a full service commercial real estate firm headquartered in Tucson, Arizona. The company is vertically integrated with property management, asset management, brokerage, development, financing administration, and construction administration divisions. Their focus is on the retail, office and industrial sectors in Southern Arizona. Operating since 1994, Larsen Baker has become the largest independent retail-commercial property owner in Southern Arizona. Larsen Baker and its affiliates own and manage over 5.8 million square feet of commercial space in ±95 locations with over 750 Tenants throughout Tucson and Southern Arizona.

RETAIL BEST-IN-CLASS BROKER

Jeramy Price • Broker, VOLK Company

Jeramy Price brings a unique perspective to his client representation, having owned and operated several businesses as well as acquiring and remodeling commercial property. His expertise includes all phases of retail real estate work. He has assisted in the lease, sale and redevelopment of numerous restaurants, freestanding buildings, retail land and shopping centers throughout Arizona and is responsible for several ground up developments in southern Arizona. His specialties include site selection, expansion strategy, restaurant sales and leasing, tenant, and landlord representation, investment sales, as well as buyer and seller representation.

RESIDENTIAL LAND BEST-IN-CLASS TEAM

 Will White • Senior Manager, Land Advisors Organization, Tucson Office

Will White has led the Tucson office of Land Advisors for over 24 years and LAO has been recognized as the leading land brokerage company in Tucson by volume for well over a decade. Will specializes in the representation of the area’s top master-planned and residential communities. His work with southern Arizona’s homebuilders is well documented and the office has been responsible for Tucson’s most high-profile land transactions and assignments. Will currently represents Tucson projects with a lot inventory exceeding 22,000 future lots and is a known go-to for speaking engagements and writing contributions. Will’s long-term relationships with many key players in Tucson, Marana and Pima County enables him to continually represent public and private homebuilders, master developers, and large financial institutions effectively and efficiently. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and its Mentor/Partnership Program, the Southern Arizona Homebuilder’s Association, and Big Brothers Big Sisters of Southern Arizona Chair of Advisory Board. He has won the TRENDReport Best-in-Class Broker award in the Tucson Market since its inception, an achievement that is based solely on the highest transaction volume. Will graduated from the University of Arizona with a bachelor’s degree in regional development and earned his Arizona Real Estate license in 1997. Will was a 2022 and 2023 TREND report Best-in-Class winner.

John Carroll • Director, Land Advisors Organization, Tucson Office

Metropolitan Statistical Area Advisor John Carroll focuses on the marketing of residential land and investment properties in Pima County. As a fifth-generation resident of Tucson, John has experienced first-hand Pima County’s significant growth, and he applies this knowledge to generate nuanced market insights for clients. His prediction of the total value of the permits issued in Pima County in 2014 came closest to actual, making him the winner of the CCIM Real Estate Land Forecast Competition that year. John joined the Tucson office of Land Advisors Organization in 2012. He is a member of the Urban Land Institute and SAHBA (Southern Arizona Homebuilders Association). John was a 2022 and 2023 TREND report Best-in-Class winner.

INDUSTRIAL LAND BEST-IN-CLASS BROKER

Jesse Blum • Principal, Industrial Properties

Proud Tucson native, Jesse Blum, with Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR’s market-leading industrial team. Blum has focused his entire career on industrial real estate brokerage in southern Arizona. Following a distinguished academic path within Economics and Regional Development, his professional pursuits began at Grubb & Ellis in 2008, followed by over seven years with CBRE. To carve a niche within a competitive environment, Blum combined his analytical training with market dynamics to provide unique insights and opportunities for his clients. Providing best case outcomes for both owners and users has propelled Blum to become a perennial top tier producer. Blum specializes in large scale and long-term positioning for real estate ownership, site selection and competitive analysis for users, and disposition of investment properties in greater Tucson. He prides himself on aligning his success with that of his clients.

COMMERCIAL LAND BEST-IN-CLASS BROKER

Scott Soelter • Managing Director, NAI Horizon

NAI Horizon Commercial Real Estate Services, Managing Director (2013–Present) • Newmark Grubb Knight Frank, Associate Director (2012–2013) • Grubb & Ellis, Executive Vice President (2008–2012)

Old Vail Development Company, Member (2006–Present) Bourn Partners, Project & Asset Manager (1998–2006) •The Pagel Company, Commercial Appraiser (1982–1997). Scott is a senior associate with a comprehensive understanding of the real estate industry. Particular areas of expertise include: retail shopping center and office development along with landlord and tenant representation, market data collection, analysis and strategic planning at both the general market and project level.

TUCSON, AZ (December 24, 2024) SAHBA, Southern Arizona Home Builders Association, and Land Advisors Organization are thrilled to announce the 2025 Tucson Land & Housing Forecast, sponsored by Landmark Title Assurance Agency. The event will be on February 27th from 3:00-7:00 pm at Hacienda Del Sol.

Please save the date for what is expected to be a complete and unvarnished look at the current and future state of the market in Southern Arizona. Speaker Lineup and ticket information coming soon!

For Sponsorship opportunities, please contact:

• David Godlewski- David@sahba.org
• Will White- wwhite@landadvisors.com