CBRE Reports: Speculative Deliveries Push Tucson Industrial Vacancy to 7.8% in Q4 2025

Tucson Industrial

TUCSON, AZ (Feb. 3, 2026) — A wave of largely speculative industrial deliveries helped lift Tucson’s industrial vacancy rate to 7.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, as 688,609 square feet of new product delivered—nearly 80% of it vacant—while net absorption stayed negative, according to new figures from CBRE.

Q4 2025 snapshot

CBRE’s report shows Tucson posted net absorption of -35,451 square feet in Q4 as space returned to the market, while average asking lease rates climbed 4.8% quarter-over-quarter to $0.88 per square foot NNN. Entering 2026, the metro had 330,093 square feet under construction, with roughly 93% uncommitted, setting up potential additional upward pressure on vacancy as that pipeline delivers.

Availability and vacancy: move-outs and new deliveries drove the increase

Overall industrial availability rose to 10.0% (from 9.0% the prior quarter), expanding from 3.8 million to over 4.0 million square feet of available space. The Southwest submarket was a key driver, with multiple move-outs and new availability contributing to sharp local increases. CBRE also noted that three fully vacant buildings were delivered in Q4, adding nearly 600,000 square feet of available space near the airport and along I-10 corridors.

Market-wide vacancy increased about 160 basis points to 7.8% in Q4, attributed in part to large Southwest move-outs and a newly delivered building still seeking its first tenant. Vacancy in Tucson remains below other regional markets—CBRE cited Phoenix at 11% vacancy for the quarter.

Leasing and absorption: 345,196 SF of gross activity, but Southwest dragged totals

CBRE recorded 345,196 square feet of gross leasing activity in Q4, but the quarter still ended with negative absorption. Most submarkets posted positive absorption, while the Southwest registered -211,852 square feet and the Northeast -10,986 square feet for the quarter.

Among notable Q4 changes:

  • Arizona Daily Star’s former space—218,500 square feet—was cited as vacant and available for sublease, contributing to the Southwest shift.
  • A 194,879-square-foot newly constructed building at Butterfield Logistics Center was reported as still awaiting a tenant.
  • Notable move-ins included Zona Volleyball Club & Xcimer Energy leasing 39,000 square feet at 3160 S. Transcon Way, and Border States Electric Supply leasing 81,962 square feet at 763 E. Macarthur Circle.

Lease rates: average $0.88 NNN, with submarket divergence

Average asking rents increased to $0.88 per square foot NNN. CBRE reported the East Central submarket posted one of the biggest quarter-over-quarter jumps (from $0.92 to $1.02), while the Airport submarket eased slightly and the Northwest dipped quarter-over-quarter but remained the priciest at $1.05.

Development pipeline: deliveries peak since Q3 2023; 330,093 SF under construction

Four projects delivered in Q4—marking the metro’s highest quarterly delivery total since Q3 2023—including:

  • Butterfield Logistics Center (3725 E. Columbia St.) – 194,879 square feet
  • I-10 International Buildings B and C (4401 & 4501 E. Los Reales Rd.) in the Airport submarket
  • A 120,000-square-foot Becton Dickinson build-to-suit at Valencia Rd. and Kolb Rd.

Looking ahead, CBRE highlighted major projects in planning—American Battery Factory and Project Blue—and said Beale Infrastructure is planning a data center campus on 290 acres in the Southeast submarket, with an estimated $3.6 billion economic impact, according to the report.

Read the full report here: Q4 2025 CBRE Tucson Industrial Figures