EBRC Research Staff - Latest data as of 18 July 2025
(July 21, 2025) -- The U.S. unemployment rate changed little in June at 4.1%, with total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 147,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Market report July 3rd employment situation summary. Job market gains occurred in the Government sector (73,000), the Health Care sector (39,000), and the Social Assistance sector (10,000). Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private payrolls rose by 8 cents, or 0.2%, to $36.60. The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in June. Additionally, this release revises April and May employment up by a combined 16,000. -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
Total nonfarm employment in Arizona increased by 14,400 jobs over the year in June, with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points in June to 4.1%. Arizona's non-seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment declined by 59,100 in June, which is worse than the pre-pandemic average of -51,600. Employment gains were reported in Trade, Transportation, & Utilities (1,600), Manufacturing (1,100), and Construction (600). Employment losses occurred in Government (-37,100), Professional & Business Services (-8,500), Leisure & Hospitality (-7,400), Private Educational Services (-5,900), Health Care and Social Assistance (-1,700), Financial Activities (-700), Other Services (-600), and Information (-500). No net change was reported in Natural Resources & Mining. -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
In June, over the month, state unemployment rates were lower in two states, higher in one state, and stable in the remaining 47 and the District of Columbia. Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained the same over the month at 4.1%. South Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate at 1.8%. The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate at 5.9%, followed by California and Nevada at 5.9%. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 15 states and was essentially unchanged in 35 states and the District of Columbia. The most significant job gains occurred in Texas (198,300), Florida (142,300), and New York (100,100). The largest percentage increases occurred in South Carolina (2.9%), Idaho (2.5%), and Hawaii (2.3%). -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
In May, compared to the previous year, metropolitan unemployment rates were higher in 285 of the 387 areas, lower in 84, and stable in the remaining 18. The May unemployment rates for the Tucson and Phoenix metropolitan areas were 4.2% and 3.7%, respectively. Yuma had the highest unemployment rate in Arizona at 13.9%, while Phoenix had the lowest. Sioux Falls, SD-MN, had the lowest unemployment rate at 1.7%, and El Centro, CA, had the highest rate at 17.4%. The most significant over-the-year increase in unemployment rate occurred in Yuma, AZ, by +2.2 percentage points, and the most significant decrease occurred in Elkhart-Goshen, IN, by -1.1 percentage points. -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
The May 2025 release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report stated that the number of job openings in the U.S. was little changed at 7.8 million, with a job openings rate of 4.6%. The number of job openings increased in the accommodation and food services sector (+314,000) and the finance and insurance sector (+91,000). The number of job openings decreased in the federal government (-39,000). Nationally, the number of hires was little changed at 5.5 million. In May, the rate was 3.4%, 3.5% in April, and 3.4% in March. The number of total separations in the nation was little changed at 5.2 million, with a rate of 3.3%. The number of quits was little changed at 3.3 million with a rate of 2.1%. The number of layoffs and discharges remained relatively unchanged at 1.6 million, with a rate of 1.0%. Layoffs and discharges decreased in finance and insurance (-47,000). -Alex Jaeger
The U.S. trade deficit increased to $71.5 billion in May, up from a revised figure of $60.3 billion for April. Exports and imports were both lower over the month, with exports decreasing by $11.6 billion and imports decreasing by $0.3 billion. Year-to-date, the May goods and services deficit was 50.4% higher than in the same period last year. The largest U.S. trade surpluses for May were with the Netherlands ($4.8 billion), Hong Kong ($3.6 billion), South and Central America ($3.3 billion), and Switzerland ($3.3 billion). Trade deficits were recorded with the European Union ($22.5 billion), Mexico ($17.1 billion), Vietnam ($14.9 billion), and China ($14.0 billion). The trade deficit with China decreased by $5.7 billion for the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. -Valorie Rice
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items rose 0.3% over the month in June 2025, up from 0.1% in May. The CPI for shelter drove the acceleration, rising 0.2% month-over-month. The shelter index includes rent, imputed owner-occupied rent, and short-term rentals. The gasoline index rose 1.0% in June, and the food index rose 0.3%. Over the year, the all-items CPI rose 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May. Less food and energy, prices were up 2.9%.
Phoenix MSA all-items inflation remained subdued in June, with the index up 0.2% over the year. The all-items less food and energy index rose 0.1%. Consumer commodity prices fell 0.6%, while services prices increased 0.6%. The Phoenix shelter CPIU fell 0.7% over the year in June. -George Hammond
The U.S. Producer Price Index for final demand was stable over the month in June, after rising 0.3% in May. Final demand prices for goods rose 0.3% over the month, while services declined 0.1%. Over the year, final demand prices rose 2.3%, with core goods prices up 2.5%. Producer prices for intermediate processed goods rose 0.1%, the third consecutive increase. The June increase was driven primarily by processed energy goods. In particular, the index for natural gas to electric utilities jumped 12.1%. The index for unprocessed goods rose 0.7%. -George Hammond
Older adults now outnumber children in many parts of the nation, according to the 2024 Census Bureau population estimates by characteristics (age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin). In 2024, there were 11 states where the population aged 65 and over exceeded that of the population aged 18 and under, up from just three states in 2020. Arizona was not among those states, as it still reports the younger population exceeding that of the older. However, nearly half of the counties in the state do have a larger portion of older adults compared to children, those being Cochise, Gila, La Paz, Mohave, Pima, Pinal, and Yavapai. The median age in Arizona for 2024 was 39.2 years, similar to the U.S. at 39.1 years. The Asian population was the fastest-growing in the U.S. between 2023 and 2024, increasing by 4.2%. It was also the fastest-growing population in Arizona for that period, with a 6.8% increase. The second-fastest-growing population in Arizona was Black or African American, increasing 3.7% compared to a 1.0% national increase. The Hispanic or Latino population in Arizona grew at a similar pace as the nation, 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively. -Valorie Rice
Arizona added business establishments at a higher rate than the nation between 2022 and 20233, based on the 2023 County Business Patterns, released by the Census Bureau on June 26. The number of establishments in Arizona grew by 1.9% in 2023, while national growth was 0.8%. All counties in Arizona, save Apache, experienced an increase in establishments, with Pinal showing the highest growth at 4.2%. Within Arizona, the industries adding the largest share of establishments over the year were educational services (4.7%), health care and social assistance (4.4%), and construction (4.2%). An establishment is a single location where business is conducted or services are performed, and not necessarily the same as a business, which can have one or more establishments.
-Valorie Rice
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