June Unemployment Numbers – Seasonal vs Unadjusted – So Where Are the Jobs?

Arizona released job numbers last week. After four months below 8.0%, Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate inched up two-tenth of percentage point from 7.8% in May to 8.0% in June. Compared to the US adjusted unemployment rate that remained at 7.6%.

The unofficial, “unadjusted for seasonal work” numbers per Arizona counties are more alarming, showing a jump of one percentage point, from 7.1% to 8.1% month over month. When Native Americans are included in the unadjusted report, the unemployment goes from 7.4% in May to 8.5% in June.

Arizona reported a net loss of 43,500 nonfarm jobs (-1.7%) in June. This loss is comparable to the ten-year average (2003-2012) loss of 41,700 jobs. The majority of nonfarm job losses were reported within Government, which lost 42,500 jobs (-10.2%). These losses are typical this time of the year due to scaling back in employment for summer within Local (-34,800 jobs) and State (-11,100 jobs) and Public Education. The Private Sector lost 1,000 jobs, less than the ten-year-average (2003-2012) a loss of 4,000 jobs. Five of the eleven major sectors added jobs, while six reported losses.

Arizona reported Tucson’s unemployment rate for June also at 8.1%, based on the most recent statistics from The Office of Employment and Population Statistics (EPS) as of July 18, 2013. Tucson’s overall labor force was reported to be 245,125, with 225,335 employed, and 19,790 unemployed or an 8.1% rate of unemployment for June, up from 6.8% in May. The overall labor force of Tucson had decreased by 4,242 since the start of the year.

The current overall labor force for Pima County in June 2013 was reported to be 454,070, employment at 419,802, and unemployment at 34,268. An increase for Pima County from 6.3% to 7.5% month over month. The overall labor force in Pima County had decreased 7,685 since January 2013.

Tucson lags behind the other Towns in the area, although all had increased unemployment rates. Overall labor force in Marana is at 16,249 with 1,103 unemployed, or a 6.8% unemployment rate. Oro Valley’s labor force is at 17,926 with 1,134 unemployed, or a 6.3% unemployment rate and Sahuarita with an overall labor force of 11,665 has 745 unemployed, or a 6.5% unemployment rate.

So where are the jobs? Statewide, over the month, Trade, Transportation and Utilities reported the largest gain of 3,100 jobs (0.6%). The main driver within TTU was larger-than-average gains in Wholesale Trade (2,800 jobs). Manufacturing reported gains of 1,900 jobs, above the historical average and primarily from gains in Durable Goods (1,700 jobs). Professional and Business Services (1,800 jobs) and Financial Activities (300 jobs) also reported job gains. Besides Government, which recorded the largest job loss, Education and Health Services also lost 3,400 jobs (0.9%); the majority of these losses were from Educational Services (-4,300 jobs). Other sectors with job losses included Leisure and Hospitality (-2,900 jobs), Other Services (-1,200 jobs), Construction (-500 jobs) and Information (-300 jobs).

Arizona gained 49,400 nonfarm jobs (2.0%) compared to a year ago in June. The Private Sector added 54,300 jobs over the year, growing by 2.7%. This is the 23rd consecutive month of at or above 2.0% growth in the Private Sector. Government shed 4,900 jobs (-1.3%), ending thirteen consecutive months of positive over-the-year job growth. Nine of the eleven major sectors reported gains with two reporting losses. The largest over-the-year gain occurred in Leisure and Hospitality (12,500 jobs). Construction recorded the second largest gain (7,900 jobs), and has posted growth rates at or above 5.0% for eleven consecutive months. Other major sectors reporting gains include: Trade, Transportation and Utilities (9,200 jobs), Professional and Business Services (8,000 jobs), Education and Health Services (7,300 jobs), Financial Activities (7,200 jobs), Manufacturing (1,200 jobs), Information (1,000 jobs), and Natural Resources and Mining (400 jobs). Government lost 4,900 jobs; the majority of these losses occurring in Local Education (-6,600 jobs). Other Services also reported over-the-year losses (-2,400 jobs).

Get detailed information on Arizona data at www.azstats.gov