(July 24, 2026) — The Commercial Real Estate Development Association’s 2026 Market Monitor, formerly known as the NAIOP Market Monitor, examines changing transaction volume, market size, and volatility across the 102 largest U.S. office and industrial markets.
Maria Sicola, Elle Saling and Charles Warren authored the July report, which compares activity from the second quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026 with the prior-year period, offering investors and developers a way to identify regional trends, evaluate relative market performance and determine which locations may align with their risk and return objectives.
Overall, the findings point to a commercial real estate market entering its second consecutive year of recovery, with broader sales growth, stabilizing volatility and increasing momentum in secondary and inland markets.
Sales increased across the 102 largest office and industrial markets for the second year in a row. Office transaction volume rose 53.4 percent year over year, while industrial volume increased 34.2 percent.
Importantly, the gains were not concentrated in only a handful of major markets. Growth was distributed across a broad range of metropolitan areas, suggesting that the recovery is widening beyond the largest and most liquid investment destinations.
Large Office Markets Regain Momentum
The strongest growth in office transactions was recorded in the nation’s largest markets. New York, San Francisco, San Jose, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Miami, Boston and Chicago all posted notable increases in sales activity.
Transaction volume among the 51 largest office markets grew faster than activity in the second-largest group of 51 markets.
Office market volatility also appears to be stabilizing following the substantial repricing and uncertainty that characterized 2024. Most markets remained relatively steady, with no significant changes in transaction patterns.
Detroit was the only office market to record an increase in volatility, and the report indicated that its volatility ultimately returned to its previous level.
Several smaller office markets also advanced. Oklahoma City moved from the second-largest group into the nation’s 51 largest office markets, while San Antonio and Wilmington, North Carolina, recorded significant increases in transaction volume.
The Midwest remained a relative soft spot, however, with more office markets declining in relative size than expanding.
Industrial Growth Expands Beyond Major Hubs
Industrial investment activity was particularly strong among the nation’s second-largest 51 markets, where transaction volume increased 53.4 percent. That rate exceeded growth among the largest industrial markets and points to expanding opportunities outside the country’s established distribution hubs.
Several inland logistics and regional distribution markets appear to be benefiting from changes in supply chains, population growth and lower operating costs.
Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, were among the markets highlighted as benefiting from these trends.
Durham, North Carolina, and Lakeland, Florida, moved into the nation’s 51 largest industrial markets, reflecting their growing importance as logistics and distribution centers.
Industrial volatility remained fundamentally stable overall. Only Gainesville and Las Vegas experienced significant changes, and both recorded declines in volatility, suggesting improving market stability.
The report did identify increased relative volatility in several Midwestern industrial markets, demonstrating that recovery conditions remain uneven across regions.
Phoenix Shows Continued Investment Strength
Phoenix remained an important office and industrial investment market during the period covered by the CREDA report, although it was not among the metros highlighted in the report’s national summary.
Phoenix office sales volume increased 53.7 percent year over year during the first quarter of 2026, reaching approximately $353 million. Industrial investment also remained active, with roughly $1.1 billion in sales during the quarter and approximately $5.1 billion in industrial assets trading during 2025.
The results are consistent with the report’s broader finding that investment activity is recovering across both office and industrial markets. Phoenix continues to benefit from population growth, corporate expansion, semiconductor and advanced-manufacturing investment, and its expanding role as a major Southwest logistics hub.
At the same time, elevated office and industrial vacancy rates indicate that the market’s recovery remains selective. Investor demand is strongest for newer industrial properties, well-located infill assets and higher-quality office buildings.
Port Markets Face Trade-Related Headwinds
Not all markets benefited equally from the broader recovery.
Savannah, Georgia, and Norfolk, Virginia, experienced significant declines in relative industrial transaction volume. The report suggests that these changes may be related to shifting international trade patterns.
By comparison, secondary markets located near inland logistics hubs appear to have benefited from the reconfiguration of supply chains and regional distribution networks.
The report cautions that changes in smaller markets should be interpreted carefully. Because these markets record fewer transactions, one large sale can significantly affect annual volume, relative rankings and measures of volatility.
As a result, some of the most dramatic changes may reflect individual transactions rather than a sustained shift in underlying market fundamentals.
Taken together, the findings present a generally constructive outlook for developers and investors. Office and industrial sales activity is growing for a second consecutive year, volatility is stabilizing in most markets, and investment momentum is spreading into secondary and inland locations.
At the same time, weaker performance in some Midwestern office markets and trade-exposed port markets underscores the importance of evaluating local fundamentals rather than assuming a uniform nationwide recovery.
To read the full report, click here
