By Keith Pomonis

PHOENIX (July 7, 2026) — As the Valley deals with the peak midsummer heat of July and August, the local property landscape is proving it has plenty of long-term staying power.

Driven by consistent population growth, a booming advanced manufacturing sector, and a surge in technology infrastructure, Phoenix is solidifying its status as a top-10 national real estate market to watch.

The days of frantic, speculative building are giving way to calculated, needs-driven developments. Here is how the Valley’s key real estate sectors are shifting under the desert sun.

Industrial stays in the spotlight

Phoenix remains a dominant industrial powerhouse across the country. A massive infrastructure super cycle is keeping the market moving. The multi-billion-dollar Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) facilities in the North Valley continue to act as a major economic catalyst. Downstream supply chain vendors are systematically snatching up nearby big-box and light-industrial spaces.

While the construction pipeline has cooled to roughly 14.9 million square feet, narrowing the threat of oversupply, leasing velocity has remained incredibly strong. Large distribution and manufacturing companies absorbed millions of square feet in the first half of the year, stabilizing industrial asking rents near $1.08 per square foot. Land deals are highly competitive; entitled industrial acreage in the Southeast Valley recently commanded upwards of $432,000 per acre.

Office submarkets experience a warm front

The local office sector is proving surprisingly resilient. While older, outdated properties still struggle with vacancy, premier Class A spaces in highly-amenitized submarkets are heating up. Overall office vacancy fell to 20.3% earlier this year, marking a steady recovery as hybrid work schedules normalize and employers lock in long-term footprints.

Significant institutional capital is shifting back toward stabilized assets. Recent major transactions highlight this confidence, including the notable $103 million sale of the University of Phoenix Riverpoint office campus.

Multifamily, retail find their balance

The multifamily sector is currently managing a heavy wave of apartment inventory. Though average effective rents have dipped roughly 4% to 6% year-over-year due to a burst of new supply, occupancy rates remain healthy at around 94.4%. Steady net migration from high-cost coastal states acts as a reliable floor for long-term housing demand.

Meanwhile, retail remains the tightest and most insulated asset class in the Valley. Retail vacancy holds remarkably steady at roughly 5%. Instead of relying on traditional department store anchors, developers are finding success with mixed-use, entertainment-driven lifestyle centers in fast-growing suburbs like Gilbert and Queen Creek.

Ultimately, late summer 2026 finds Phoenix transitioning from an erratic, boom-and-bust frontier market into a mature, sophisticated metropolis. For investors navigating the current landscape, the Valley offers a compelling mix of stable consumer demand, business-friendly policies, and undeniable long-term momentum. Keith Pomonis is the President of Mesa-based EHS Restoration. For more information, call (480) 306-5777 or visit ehsrestoration.com.

By: John Carroll of Land Advisors Organization

TUCSON, AZ (July 3, 2026) — The mid-year residential land update looks very different from what it was in 2025. The 2026 land market has come back with conviction. After a 2025 that honestly felt like we were waiting on everyone to get things together, the first six months of this year have been a different story. Permits are up, sales rates are strong, and builders are buying lots — a lot of lots. The competitive environment for good, entitled, infrastructure-ready ground has gotten real. In 2025, the pause was just setting in, and in 2026, all signs point to things heating up around Tucson.

Increase after increase

Through the first five months of 2026, Tucson has recorded 1,538 single-family permits — a 10.65% increase over the same stretch in 2025. Annualized, we’re on track to issue approximately 3,691 permits by year-end. I want to highlight that this would represent a 20% + increase over last year. Selling season started off strong and paused midway through, but the numbers are up, and that is what most builders are looking at.

The monthly breakdown tells the story: January ripped out of the gate up nearly 33% year-over-year. February was up another 12.5%. March dipped slightly — more about lot delivery timing than anything demand-side. April came roaring back at +22.85%, and May came in slightly under last year’s pace. Nothing in that pattern worries me. What we see is a market that’s expanding in a disciplined way, not overheating, not stalling. The trend line points up and to the right. That’s what we want.

Sales Velocity Is Real — Builders Are Writing Contracts

This isn’t just a permit story: multiple builders have consistently contracted on more than 50 homes per month since January. Six straight months of 50-plus net contracts at a market the size of Tucson isn’t luck — that’s real demand, real buyers, and builders confident enough in their lot supply to open the throttle.

This pace justifies new community openings. It justifies active investment in the land and lot pipeline, and the transaction in the first half points to this. We do not see any signs of this slowing down in the most active areas.

Builders Are Actively Building Their Lot Pipeline

The most telling story of the first half? What have builders been doing on the land side vs. 2025?

Our tracking shows builders across the Tucson market have collectively acquired a pipeline of 1,738 lots through June — 1,600 of which represent new land deals (the rest are pre-set land bank takedowns). As shown in the chart, the number of lots acquired in the first half of 2026 vs. 2025 represents a 42.86% increase. That’s a forward-supply engine being assembled in real time to fuel community openings in 2027 and 2028. Also of note is that some of the largest land deals in some time have closed. Camino Verano is leading the way in March.

The depth of the buyer pool is what really stands out. Ashton Woods / Starlight has been leading things in Tucson over the past 15 months and leads 2026 with 480 lots purchased. DR Horton, Mattamy, Richmond American, KB Home, and Lennar are all active so far in 2026. Now, for the second half of the year, you’ve got national platforms and regional operators competing for the same supply simultaneously. That supply isn’t getting larger. That’s a healthy, competitive market — and it’s very good news for the region’s master-developers.

Equally strong news is that the past 45 days have brought a huge wave of new deals slated for the second half. We see this as our biggest metric in gauging 2026 and into 2027. If only a portion of deals close, it will make for a big story in this year’s acquisitions and be a far cry from the slowdown we saw in 2025.

Market Share Is Shifting and the Numbers Make It Obvious

One of the clearest signals I’m watching right now is the shift in builder market share. When you look at builders who are contracting 50-plus homes a month and need the largest pipeline of lots to sustain that pace, it tells you everything about where market share is moving in this market.

The builders driving the highest sales velocity need the deepest lot supply — and they’re proving it with their acquisition activity. The builders at the top of the pipeline chart aren’t there by accident. They’ve made strategic bets on Tucson, they’re operating at scale, and they’re crowding out competitors for the best land opportunities. If you’re tracking monthly sales and cross-referencing them with who’s buying the most lots, the market share story becomes crystal clear. The big are getting bigger, new builders are entering Tucson, and they’re doing it through disciplined lot acquisition — not just sales and marketing.

Where Growth Is Happening — and Where It Isn’t

Not all submarkets are equal right now, and understanding where deals are getting done matters.

The most active areas in Tucson are Southeast and Southwest Tucson. These are the markets where land, infrastructure, and builder demand are aligning, and deals are getting completed. SE and SW have become the workhorses of this 2026 cycle, and that’s where we’re seeing the most competitive activity when quality product comes to market.

NW Tucson remains a critically important long-term story, but the geography is dictating the pace. The growth corridor is essentially boxed in by infrastructure limitations. This isn’t a slowdown in builder interest; it’s physical constraints that are redirecting the search to the areas and projects that are established and can fill the pipeline the quickest.

This year, 75% of lots in the first half of 2026 were purchased in master-planned communities and in partnership with the region’s master developers. Builders have found success with this formula, and we see them continuing to prioritize these projects and relationships.

And then there’s the bigger picture that cuts across all of Pima County: infrastructure.

Infrastructure is still the Defining Variable challenge

If there’s one theme that has defined deal-making in Tucson’s land market this cycle, it’s this: If a project doesn’t have the core components to launch- roads and utilities- it means it is much harder to do a deal. Full stop.

Infrastructure challenges aren’t just a nuisance. They’re actively defining where growth happens and where it doesn’t. Builders today are underwriting with a much clearer eye on infrastructure risk than they were five years ago. When the cost and timeline of bringing roads, water, and sewer to a site becomes a major variable, the calculations on raw or suboptimally positioned land change fast.

In 2026, we will experience that sites with infrastructure in place, or at least clearly defined with a near-term delivery timeline, will be the ones getting the calls and LOIs. The sites where that story is murky? Those are the deals that are not getting the full attention. Builders have multiple options right now, and they’re being selective about which infrastructure risks they’ll take on.

This dynamic isn’t going away. If anything, it’s intensifying as the market heats up and builders feel even less pressure to take on complicated entitlement or infrastructure situations when cleaner opportunities are available.

Bottom line: The first half of 2026 has put Tucson land back on the map. Permits tracking toward a cycle high, sustained consumer demand, active builder acquisition, and a competitive environment for quality lots and projects. These are all the ingredients of a healthy, functioning land market. The second half of the year looks strong for the projects that have paved the way for Tucson’s homebuilders. Looks like the race is on for 2027 and 2028, and that’s good news!

John Carroll is a Pima County specialist focused on the sales and marketing of residential land and investment properties throughout Southern Arizona. A fifth-generation Tucsonan, John uses his deep local knowledge to provide clients with nuanced market insight. He joined the Tucson office of Land Advisors Organization in 2012. His affiliations include SAHBA, the Southern Arizona Home Builders Association, and ULI, the Urban Land Institute. John continued his family’s long University of Arizona tradition by graduating from the Eller College of Management with a degree in marketing. John can be reached at (520) 514-7454.

JLL arranges bridge loan through Pacific Life Insurance Company for Class A logistics campus strategically positioned near Loop 303

PHOENIX (July 3, 2026) – JLL Capital Markets announced today that Partners Group, one of the largest firms in the global private markets industry, and ViaWest Group have secured $122 million in bridge financing for The Base, a newly constructed, seven-building industrial campus totaling 1,182,865 square feet in Glendale, Arizona, through Pacific Life Insurance Company.

Partners Group and ViaWest Group own The Base, which represents one of the most sophisticated industrial developments to come online in the West Valley, through a joint venture. Partners Group holds a majority stake in the JV.

The Base features premium specifications that include 32-foot to 36-foot clear heights, heavy-power capabilities ranging from 3,000 to 6,000 amps, ESFR sprinkler systems and R-38 roof insulation. The campus is designed with optimal truck circulation, accommodating 222 dock-high doors, 39 grade-level doors, 105 trailer parking spaces and 1,363 automobile parking spaces. The property offers exceptional operational flexibility with the ability to accommodate single or multi-tenant configurations across varying suite sizes. Construction of all buildings and make-ready tenant improvements was completed in early 2026.

Strategically positioned at the northwest corner of Litchfield Rd. and Bethany Home Rd., The Base benefits from superior connectivity to the Greater Phoenix Metro through Loop 303, Loop 101 and Interstate 10. The location provides access to major West Coast markets, including Los Angeles, San Diego, and Las Vegas, reaching a combined population exceeding 30 million within a single day’s drive time. The campus sits within 5 miles of Glendale Municipal Airport, 7.5 miles of Phoenix-Goodyear Airport, and 26 miles of Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.

The campus benefits from immediate proximity to Luke Air Force Base, which generates $2.8 billion in annual economic impact and employs more than 7,000 military and civilian personnel. This positioning creates natural synergies for defense contractors, aerospace suppliers, and specialized service providers requiring close coordination with military operations. The Base is also surrounded by retail amenities and sits within a labor pool that includes 288,000 households in a 10-mile radius.

“We have thematic conviction in the Phoenix industrial market, which benefits from strong population growth and a key position as a logistics hub,” said Henrik Orrbeck, Global Co-Head of Real Estate at Partners Group. “Our strategy for The Base North is to capitalize on these trends by providing best-in-class assets with modern specifications that can meet the needs of logistics, e-commerce, and advanced manufacturing tenants. We are pleased with the result of this financing, which builds on recent leasing momentum.”

The JLL team was led by Capital Markets President Kevin MacKenzie, Senior Director Jason Carlos and Senior Analysts Lilley Kroll and Ross Jorgensen.

“The debt markets continue to present an unmet supply of capital for well-sponsored opportunities — particularly in favorable markets like Phoenix,” said MacKenzie. “Lenders are actively deploying into lease-up scenarios backed by experienced sponsors, and we’re seeing access to capital that extends runway to execute the business plan, reduces cost of capital and funds the leasing costs needed to stabilize. The Base is precisely the type of opportunity that attracts that conviction.”

JLL’s Capital Markets group is a full-service global provider of capital solutions for real estate investors and occupiers. The group’s in-depth local market and global investor knowledge delivers the best-in-class solutions for clients, including investment sales and advisory, debt advisory, M&A and corporate finance, loan sales, equity & fund placement, net lease, derivative advisory and energy & infrastructure advisory. The group has more than 3,000 Capital Markets specialists worldwide with offices in nearly 50 countries.