We’re pleased to announce the August mid-year issue of Trend report  is out! Trend report,  a sister company to the Real Estate Daily News, is a monthly publication that covers  new developments, transactions, market trends, policy issues, as well as in depth submarket and sector updates contributed by industry leaders. The editor’s comments from the August issue follows:

We’ve cast a wide net for trends in this mid-year issue.

While commercial real estate leaders watch the housing market and overall economy for signs of a recession, the National Association of Realtors chief economist said this week to “look to commercial real estate for clues about the direction of the economy and whether or not we are heading into a recession.”

Our standard way of doing things is being turned upside down, including looking for real estate trends and Tucson just set a record sales price for multifamily on July 5th.

There’s nothing straightforward about the question – “are we heading into a recession?” It’s just more chaos for now, as witnessed during the first half of the year and more of the same expected on the back end of the year. Statistically, there are still two job openings for each unemployed person nationally. So, it’s difficult to see a recession, this year at least.

The ability to adapt and innovate is more important now than ever. Maybe this is the new normal. There are opportunities among the challenges being faced, and some will gain by these opportunities.

Amongst all the chaos, our mid-year issue of Trend report, wanted to highlight some young leadership in our community.

Content contributors such as Zach Yentzer, Executive Director of Tucson Young Professionals with almost 1,000 members; John Winchester, Director of Government & Community Engagement at ASU; Liz Pocock, CEO of Startup Tucson; Dre Thompson,CEO of Tucson Industrial Development Authority; and Rob Elias, President/CEO of Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, inspire hope and optimism with their work multiplying community leaders.

Members of the Millennial generation (born between 1984–2002), are hungry to change the world. In the next fifteen years, 45 percent of the workforce in the U.S. will be disappearing, mostly Baby Boomers. These vacancies must be filled by young, trained leaders; and to this end, Jim Marian updates us on his work with the MRED program at UA, and Ethan Orr, Director of UA’s Agriculture, Natural Resources, Economic and Community Development Programs, reminds us of the great youth leadership development programs UA offers across the state.

Sam Credio, PE, Director of DTM at the City of Tucson, lays out what to expect from his $280 million for road improvements, calling it a “historic investment in our community.” Prop 411 promised to bring road improvements to every neighborhood street in the City within the next ten years, and we’re confident if anyone can, Sam can.

The mid-year economic outlooks from Ryan Severino, Chief Economist at JLL; Danny Court, Senior Economist at Elliott D Pollack & Company; and George Hammond, Director of the Economic & Business Center of Eller College of Management at UA help explain some of the market conditions to watch.

Housing permits discussed by Jim Daniel of RL Brown remind us that Tucson and the state of Arizona don’t generally follow national trends and fare much better than most other areas, amid the economic and population expansion we are experiencing.

We are delighted to welcome a newcomer to Tucson in this issue. David Krumwiede, Senior Executive Vice President of Lincoln Property Company, which recently closed on 77 acres of land to pave the way for I-10 International, a one million square foot, Class A industrial project, in a Trend report exclusive, explains “Why Tucson?” for this $260-million “creative industrial” vision.

In conclusion, Jessa Turner, Director of Communications, Tech Parks Arizona, walks us through what’s happening at the Tech Park.

Commercial Sales Activity for Pima County shows a 104% increase in sales volume over last month and a 50% increase YOY in volume, with July expected to be much the same according to RED Comps tracking.

Demand for Tucson’s multifamily market continued its stable performance and elevated rent growth in Q2 with healthy sales volume. Many investors are relying on continued rental growth in Tucson, as the value-add market remains strong.

Our next Trend report for September will be on Multifamily, so expect more details then. See PICOR’s Q2 2022 Marketbeat.

Tucson’s industrial market became increasingly active in Q2, with 164,423 SF of positive net absorption, a threefold increase from Q1. See CBRE’s Tucson Industrial Q2 2022.

Tucson retail is recovering, with more fitness gyms, nail salons and restaurants coming to strip centers and is expected to hold up to CBRE’s National Q2 2022 Figures.

Tucson’s office market is another story and saw a downturn in net absorption Q2, reaching the largest net negative absorption as well as highest increase in vacancy for the past four years. Some form of working from home appears to be a permanent feature of our new normal. See CBRE’s Tucson Office Figures Q2 2022.

It’s an eclectic issue, which matches an eclectic first half of the year. Thanks to our Trend report team: Patti van Leer, Michael Rossmann, Melissa Vucijevic, and Jack Paddock for their help.

And thank you to our readers for your continued support. As always, we appreciate your feedback and welcome any comments.

If you don’t subscribe and would like to learn more about Trend report, or receive a complimentary copy of this issue, please email us at [email protected].

Karen Schutte
Managing Editor

Real Estate Daily News Buzz is designed to give news snippets to readers that our (yet to be award winning) editors thought you could use to start your day. They come from various business perspectives, real estate, government, the Fed, local news, and the stock markets to save you time. Here you will find the headlines and what the news buzz of the day will be.

Tuesday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index slid 18.70 points, or 0.8 percent, to 2,457.85. The Dow Jones industrial average slumped 234.25 points, or 1.1 percent, to 21,753.31. The average had been down more than 277 points. The Nasdaq composite lost 59.76 points, or 0.9 percent, to 6,375.57. The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks gave up 13.92 points, or 1 percent, to 1,399.66.

Benchmark U.S. crude gained $1.37, or 2.9 percent, to settle at $48.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, used to price international oils, rose $1.04, or 2 percent, to close at $53.38 a barrel in London. Wholesale gasoline dipped 5 cents to $1.70 a gallon. Heating oil was little changed at $1.75 a gallon. Natural gas slid 10 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $2.97 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Banks, technology companies lead US stocks lower — Escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula rattled nerves on Wall Street Tuesday, leading to the stock market’s worst day in almost three weeks. Bank stocks led the slide as bond yields slumped. Technology stocks, the biggest gainers this year, also pulled the market lower. Energy companies climbed the most as the price of crude oil rose.

US factory orders tumbled 3.3 percent in July — Orders at U.S. factories tumbled in July, dragged down by a sharp fall in orders for civilian aircraft. The Commerce Departments reports that factory orders declined 3.3 percent in July, mostly because of a 19.2 percent drop in orders in transportation equipment.

To get sales kicking, LL Bean renews focus on the outdoors — L.L. Bean is putting a renewed focus on the fun of being outside as it tries to invigorate sales in a fast-changing marketplace. The Maine-based retailer is urging consumers to “Be an Outsider” in a campaign that’s launching this month that celebrates the outdoors as something to be enjoyed with friends and family. It comes as L.L. Bean has faced flat sales of about $1.6 billion for two consecutive years and as the company takes a hard look at its generous, return-anything-at-any-time policy.

Round of NAFTA talks ends amid resistance over Mexico wages — The second round of talks on renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement has ended amid resistance to talking about Mexico’s low wages. Few concrete proposals appear to have been made on issues like dispute-resolution mechanisms, seasonal farm tariffs and regional content rules during the Mexico City talks. The U.S. wants to eliminate the system of private arbitration panels, and tighten labor standards and local content rules. Business groups want to keep wages out of the talks.

Fed Should Be Cautious in Face of Weak Inflation: Brainard “U.S. inflation is falling “well short” of target so the Federal Reserve should be cautious about raising interest rates any further until it is confident that prices are headed higher, an influential Fed policymaker said on Tuesday. In a dovish speech in the face of months of weak inflation readings, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said the U.S. central bank should go so far as to make it clear it is comfortable pushing prices modestly above the Fed’s 2-percent target.” (Reuters)

Are We Headed for Another Housing Collapse? “Median home prices across the nation have been increasing with gusto, though perhaps not at levels as staggering as San Jose’s median price tag of $1,183,400. In the second quarter of 2017, prices jumped by 6.2 percent compared with the same period in 2016 to an average cost of $258,300, according to the National Association of Realtors. While trends diverge profoundly from place to place — for all sorts of economic, geographical and lifestyle reasons — a good many of the nation’s metropolitan locales have experienced record appreciation.” (New York Post)

Is Houston Still a Model City? Its Supporters Aren’t Backing Down “Houston is a prime example — of what depends on your point of view. It’s an example of development run amok, of how sprawl can devour nature. It’s what you get when everything as far as the eye can see is designed around cars instead of people. It’s an example, according to a very different interpretation, of how to create affordable housing. It’s proof that fewer regulations mean more prosperity, that the market knows better than any central planner.” (The New York Times)

Developer Lands Loan Deal to Turn Hospital Buildings into Apartments “The developer behind a planned conversion of historic former hospital buildings in upper Manhattan cut a deal to secure a construction loan to restore and transform the beaux-arts structures into apartments. Delshah Capital has entered into a nonbinding contract for a $130 million construction loan, paving the way for the conversion of five buildings at 30 Morningside Drive into 205 rental apartments.” (Wall Street Journal, subscription required)

How the Kushner Family’s Real Estate Fumble May Entangle Trump’s White House “In 2007, near the peak of the real estate bubble, Kushner Companies made a huge leap from New Jersey apartments to Manhattan high rises. Using only a $50 million down payment against a $1.8 billion purchase price, with financing including short-term, high-interest loans, they purchased the office-and-retail tower at 666 Fifth Avenue.” (Fortune)

Carlyle Avoids $1 Billion Payout Tied to 2008 Bond Fund Collapse “Carlyle Group LP was exonerated in a lawsuit tied to the collapse of a mortgage fund from 2008, avoiding $1 billion in damages sought by the pool’s liquidators. Billionaire Chief Investment Officer Bill Conway and other Carlyle entities acted in the best interests of Carlyle Capital Corp. during the 2008 financial crisis and the fund’s insolvency was due to an unforeseen liquidity crunch, the Royal Court of Guernsey ruled Monday.” (Bloomberg)

Banks Close $1.5 Billion Loan for Flagship Tower at Hudson Yards “The developer of the Hudson Yards complex on Manhattan’s West Side has hit another milestone with a financing package for its flagship office building that will increase the money it has raised for the first phase of the sprawling project to more than $18 billion. A venture led by Related Cos. has closed a $1.5 billion construction loan for 50 Hudson Yards from a group of banks from Asia, Europe and the U.S.” (Wall Street Journal, subscription required)

How Communities Can Unlock the Value of Federal Property “Towns and cities across the country seek development that promotes vibrant, people-oriented, mixed-use communities. The federal government, which owns significant tracts of land in prime areas for redevelopment, could be a key partner, but genuine collaboration between community leaders and federal officials is essential. The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) is the nation’s largest holder of commercial property, with more than 375 million square feet of space in 9,600 buildings housing more than a million federal employees.” (Governing)

Norway’s Wealth Fund Appoints Europe, U.S. Real Estate Investment Chiefs “The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund’s real estate investment unit has appointed Per Loeken and Romain Veber as chief investment officers for the United States and Europe respectively, it said on Tuesday. Both come from senior positions in the real estate unit, known as Norges Bank Real Estate Management.” (Reuters)

Crystal Ball: Executives Size Up CRE Predictions “Forecasting market trends is a universal—and vital—exercise in commercial real estate, and throughout the decades, industry leaders have often provided smart predictions that have enabled their companies to capitalize on changing conditions and steer clear of hazards, as well. Inevitably, of course, not every one of these prognostications hits the bullseye, but those that are spot-on influence strategy in both their own time and the future. In this series marking CPE’s 30th anniversary, industry leaders are taking the measure of earlier prophesies and providing fresh ones for today.” (Commercial Property Executive)

Real Estate Daily News Buzz is designed to give news snippets to readers that our (yet to be award winning) editors thought you could use to start your day. They come from various business perspectives, real estate, government, the Fed, local news, and the stock markets to save you time. Here you will find the headlines and what the news buzz of the day will be.

Friday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 4.90 points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,475.55. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 39.46 points, or 0.2 percent, to 21,987.56. The Nasdaq composite added 6.67 points, or 0.1 percent, to 6,435.33. The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks advanced 8.29 points, or 0.6 percent, to 1,413.57.

Benchmark U.S. crude added 6 cents to $47.29 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, which is used to price international oils, fell 11 cents to $52.75 a barrel in London. Wholesale gasoline prices, which have surged this week, declined 3 cents to $1.75 a gallon. Heating oil was little changed at $1.75 a gallon. Natural gas rose 3 cents to $3.07 per 1,000 cubic feet.

US job growth slowed in August but economy still looks solid — Taken as a whole, Friday’s jobs report pointed to an economy that is still steadily generating jobs, though at a less brisk pace than it did earlier in the recovery from the recession. With fewer people looking for work, fewer jobs are being filled.

Humane Society Hosts Pet Safety and First Aid Class — If your best friend had an emergency, would you be prepared? It is important for pet owners to always be prepared because you never know when a disaster will strike. On Saturday, September 16^th the Humane Society of Southern Arizona (HSSA) will be hosting a Pet Safety and First Aid Class. This class was designed by HSSA in partnership with veterinarian Michael Lent of Pantano Animal Clinic. Participants will learn how to prevent emergencies, how to assist their veterinarian in treating their pet, keep animals safe from local environmental hazards, avoid poisonous plants, avoid household dangers, and identify and react to animal cruelty and neglect issues. Registration includes Pet Safety and First Aid manual, hands-on skills training with animal mannequins, video instruction, and certificate of completion. Registration is $50 and open to individuals ages 15 and up. Space is limited and registration closes Wednesday, September 6^th. To register, visit https://bit.ly/HSSAPetFirstAid. For more information contact Dawn Miller our Community Outreach Coordinator at [email protected] or give her a call at 520-321-3704 x125.

Mnuchin: We Have a ‘Very Detailed’ Tax Plan Ready “Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday the administration has a ‘very detailed” tax plan ready and couldn’t be more excited’ about its prospects. Mnuchin made the remarks to CNBC as the White House is looking to get its economic plan back on track after months of having to focus on other issues. He said the plan has been presented to members of Congress and will be released to the public by the end of September.” (CNBC)

Japan’s Mitsui Fudosan to Develop $3.6 Billion Office Tower in New York City “Japanese property developer Mitsui Fudosan Co (8801.T) said on Friday it would take a 90 percent stake in an office tower in New York that would cost more than 400 billion yen ($3.6 billion), its largest investment in a single building overseas. The 58-storey building, 50 Hudson Yards, in Manhattan’s Hudson Yards office and retail complex will be one of the largest standalone office properties in the area, Mitsui Fudosan said in a statement.” (Reuters)

Days After Sister’s Visa Pitch, Kushner Divested Asset Related to Jersey City Project “Kushner held a ‘contingent right,’ which allows an investor the chance to gain ownership if certain benchmarks of financial success are met — such as revenue targets. Kushner’s lawyer, Blake Roberts of WilmerHale, said that he stood by his initial statement that his client had divested from One Journal Square. He said that Kushner had sold his ownership stake in the project on March 7 to his mother’s trust and that the contingent right, which was discovered only after the public statement, no longer held any value because it was connected to a prior version of the project that had fallen through.” (The Washington Post)

U.S. Cities Have a Glut of High-Rises and Still Lack Affordable Housing “Perhaps nothing thrills mayors and urban boosters like the notion of endless towers rising above their city centers. And to be sure, new high-rise residential construction has been among the hottest areas for real estate investors, particularly those from abroad, with high-end products accounting for 8o% of all new construction. Yet this is not an entirely high-end country, and these products, particularly the luxury high-rises in cities, largely depend on a small segment of the population that can afford such digs.” (Forbes)

Coastal Wetlands Dramatically Reduce Property Losses During Hurricanes “With the Atlantic hurricane season well under way and Tropical Storm Harvey causing devastation in Texas, a new scientific study reports that coastal wetlands significantly reduce annual flood losses and catastrophic damages from storms. Led by a team of scientists from the engineering, insurance, and conservation sectors, including researchers at UC Santa Cruz, the study found that coastal wetlands in the northeast United States prevented $625 million in direct flood damages during Hurricane Sandy, reducing damages by more than 22 percent in half of the affected areas and by as much as 30 percent in some states.” (Phys.org)

This Grim Map Shows All the Places Working Class Americans Can’t Afford to Live “San Antonio is the only one of the top 10 most populated cities where a working class family can enjoy a decent living without taking on more debt. Out of the top 50, only 12 qualify. Geography obviously plays a big role as well. Newark, New Jersey, Chesapeake, Va., and Jacksonville, Fla., are the only coastal locations where a worker can support his or her family. How many on the West Coast? Shocker: Exactly zero. You probably don’t need a map to tell you, but the more landlocked, the more affordable.” (MarketWatch)

Morgan Buys Suburban DC Portfolio for $509M “Already having one of the largest multifamily footprints in Greater Washington, D.C., Morgan Properties has acquired the Mark Center apartment and retail portfolio in Alexandria, Va., for $509 million. The seller was JBG. Sited fewer than five miles from The Pentagon, the portfolio is regarded as one of the largest institutionally-maintained contiguous portfolios in the country.” (Commercial Property Executive)

Are Ulta and Home Depot the Next Victims of Amazon? “One of our most favored stocks, ULTA has recently been laid low leading into and following earnings. ULTA recently reported excellent same store sales comps of 12% and Home Depot was at 6%. Unfortunately, ULTA is part of a long list of companies in the retail sector that have been taken to the woodshed by investors this year. Home Depot was not rewarded for reaching their high water mark of 6% comps. What gives? Why is retail so hated?” (Forbes)

Five Reasons Why Westfield Hearts Uber “Each shopping center will come equipped with between one and ten Uber stations, according to a Westfield news release about the partnership. At Westfield Century City in Los Angeles, there will be an “Uber Lounge” with complimentary beverages and phone charging stations. The program will begin rolling out in Westfield locations starting in the fall (official dates have yet to be announced).” (Commercial Observer)