WASHINGTON — Existing-home sales surged for the third straight month in November and reached their strongest pace in almost 11 years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions except for the West saw a significant hike in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.81 million in November from an upwardly revised 5.50 million in October. After last month’s increase, sales are 3.8 percent higher than a year ago and are at their strongest pace since December 2006 (6.42 million).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says home sales in most of the country expanded at a tremendous clip in November. “Faster economic growth in recent quarters, the booming stock market and continuous job gains are fueling substantial demand for buying a home as 2017 comes to an end,” he said. “As evidenced by a subdued level of first-time buyers and increased share of cash buyers, move-up buyers with considerable down payments and those with cash made up a bulk of the sales activity last month. The odds of closing on a home are much better at the upper end of the market, where inventory conditions continue to be markedly better.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $248,000, up 5.8 percent from November 2016 ($234,400). November’s price increase marks the 69^th straight month of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of November dropped 7.2 percent to 1.67 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 9.7 percent lower than a year ago (1.85 million) and has fallen year-over-year for 30 consecutive months. Unsold inventory is at a 3.4-month supply at the current sales pace, which is down from 4.0 months a year ago.

“The anticipated rise in mortgage rates next year could further cut into affordability if these staggeringly low supply levels persist,” said Yun. “Price appreciation is too fast in a lot of markets right now. The increase in homebuilder optimism must translate to significantly more new construction in 2018 to help ease these acute inventory shortages.”

First-time buyers were 29 percent of sales in November, which is down from 32 percent both in October and a year ago. NAR’s 2017 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released earlier this year – revealed that the annual share of first-time buyers was 34 percent.

Matching the highest share since May, all-cash sales were 22 percent of transactions in November, which is up from 20 percent in October and 21 percent a year ago. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14 percent of homes in November, up from 13 percent last month and unchanged from a year ago.

“The elevated presence of investors paying in cash continues to add a layer of frustration to the supply and affordability headwinds aspiring first-time buyers are experiencing,” said Yun. “The healthy labor market and higher wage gains are expected to further strengthen buyer demand from young adults next year. Their prospects for becoming homeowners will only improve if more lower-priced and smaller-sized homes come onto the market.”

Properties typically stayed on the market for 40 days in November, which is up from 34 days in October but down from 43 days a year ago. Forty-four percent of homes sold in November were on the market for less than a month.

Realtor.com®’s Market Hotness Index, measuring time on the market data and listings views per property, revealed that the hottest metro areas in November were San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.; Vallejo-Fairfield, Calif.; San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.; San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.; and Stockton-Lodi, Calif.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage increased for the second straight month to 3.92 percent in November from 3.90 percent in October. The average commitment rate for all of 2016 was 3.65 percent.

On the topic of tax reform, NAR President Elizabeth Mendenhall, a sixth-generation Realtor® from Columbia, Missouri and CEO of RE/MAX Boone Realty, says it’s good news homeowners can continue to count on tax incentives such as the mortgage interest deduction and the state and local tax deduction.

“Only 6 percent of homeowners have mortgages exceeding $750,000, and only 5 percent pay more than $10,000 in property taxes, but most homeowners won’t itemize under the new regime,” she said. “While we’re pleased that important homeownership incentives such as the capital gains exclusion survived in conference, additional changes are required to truly incentivize homeownership in the tax code.”

Distressed sales⁶ – foreclosures and short sales – were 4 percent of sales for the fourth straight month in November, and are down from 6 percent a year ago. Three percent of November sales were foreclosures and 1 percent were short sales.

Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales

Single-family home sales grew 4.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.09 million in November from 4.87 million in October, and are now 3.2 percent above the 4.93 million pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $248,800 in November, up 5.4 percent from November 2016.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 14.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 720,000 units in November, and are now 7.5 percent above a year ago. The median existing condo price was $242,500 in November, which is 8.8 percent above a year ago.

Regional Breakdown

November existing-home sales in the Northeast leaped 6.7 percent to an annual rate of 800,000, (unchanged from a year ago). The median price in the Northeast was $273,600, which is 4.0 percent above November 2016.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 8.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.42 million in November, and are now 6.8 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $196,100, up 8.8 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South expanded 8.3 percent to an annual rate of 2.34 million in November, and are now 4.0 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $216,200, up 4.8 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 2.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.25 million in November, but are still 2.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $375,100, up 8.2 percent from November 2016.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

WASHINGTON — Pending home sales rebounded sharply in February to their highest level in nearly a year and second-highest level in over a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions saw a notable hike in contract activity last month.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a leading indicator for the housing sector based on pending sales of existing homes,  a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, jumped 5.5 percent to 112.3 in February from 106.4 in January. Last month’s index reading was 2.6 percent above a year ago, the highest since last April (113.6) and the second highest since May 2006 (112.5).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says February’s convincing bump in pending sales is proof that demand is rising. “Buyers came back in force last month as a modest, seasonal uptick in listings were enough to fuel an increase in contract signings throughout the country,” he said. “The stock market’s continued rise and steady hiring in most markets is spurring significant interest in buying, as well as the expectation from some households that delaying their home search may mean paying higher interest rates later this year.”

Added Yun, “Last month being the warmest February in decades also played a role in kick-starting prospective buyers’ house hunt.”

Looking ahead to the busy spring months, Yun expects to see continued ebbs and flows in activity as new supply struggles to replace listings that are going under contract at a very quick pace. This is especially the case at the lower- and mid-market price ranges, where choices are minimal and prices are being bid higher by multiple offers.

“The homes most buyers are in the market for are unfortunately the most difficult to find and ultimately buy,” said Yun. “The country’s healthy labor market is translating to greater job security, but affordability is not improving because home prices in some areas are still outpacing incomes by three times or more because of tight supply. How much new and existing inventory there is on the market this spring will determine if sales can reach their full potential and finally start reversing the nation’s low homeownership rate.”

Existing-home sales are forecast to be around 5.57 million this year, an increase of 2.3 percent from 2016 (5.45 million). The national median existing-home price this year is expected to increase around 4 percent. In 2016, existing sales increased 3.8 percent and prices rose 5.1 percent.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 3.4 percent to 102.1 in February, and is now 6.6 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index jumped 11.4 percent to 110.8 in February, but is still 0.6 percent lower than February 2016.

Pending home sales in the South climbed 4.3 percent to an index of 127.8 in February and are now 4.2 percent above last February. The index in the West increased 3.1 percent in February to 97.5, but is still 0.2 percent higher than a year ago.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of National Association of Realtors, in  classic Yun-style opined recently on how the real estate market could be impacted by Donald Trump’s victory and Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress.  Though Mr. Trump is a real estate man, his policy platform has been largely vague on real estate proposals.

Yun’s opinions on how certain real estate issues may play out under President Trump and their potential impact to consumers follow:

1. There will no doubt be a short-term stimulus to the economy. A combination of tax cuts and government spending in the form of upgrading nation’s infrastructure and for national defense will provide a short boost to the economy in the first half of 2017. Inflation will likely kick a bit higher from a faster GDP growth and that will lead to modestly higher interest rates. Accompanying gains in consumer confidence will further move the economy higher. Should the faster GDP growth be sustained and arise out of higher productivity, then inflation will be manageable. Moreover, more jobs will automatically mean more tax revenue, which will lessen budget deficit. Should, however, the stimulus impact give only a short-term boost and not be durable then a much larger budget deficit will force interest rates notably higher. The future generation will be saddled with more debt.
2. The trade deficit will surely rise in 2017. That’s because a growing economy will allow Americans to drink more Italian wine, drive German sports cars, watch Korean dramas, and play Japanese game consoles. More vacation trips to Cancun and London are also likely. These activities always happen when consumers regain confidence about their financial well-being. Should tariffs be raised to lessen the trade deficit, consumers will face higher prices. If exports and imports significantly decline, then history has repeatedly shown that recession and job cuts soon follow. Most economists believe job training and re-training via community colleges are much better ways to help those who lose jobs from technological automation and from international trade.
3. There will be more gyrations in the stock market. Wall Street will cheer because of less government regulation but will frown on restrictive international trade policies. The current leader of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, may be asked to step down and this perceived intrusion into what should be an independent institution may be viewed by the financial market as unsettling. Perhaps Mr. Trump relishes in his unpredictability. But the rise of uncertainty in the financial market will hold back corporate investment spending decisions. History says that economic dynamism thrives on the rule of law and not on whims of policy uncertainty. Institutions of law matter much more than any one person or a group of people.
4. Changes to Dodd-Frank financial regulation will occur in some form. A clear positive would be the lifting of compliance costs imposed on small-sized banks. Around 10,000 local and community banks have traditionally been the source of funding for construction and land development loans. With less regulatory burden, these small banks can make more loans and will boost home building activity – something that is needed in the current housing shortage situation. But changes to financial regulations on large banks like Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo could again lead us back to the days of cowboy capitalism and consequent exposure to a massive taxpayer bailout.
5. There could be a move away from stringent mortgage underwriting to more normal lending. Credit is still tight for mortgages as evidenced by very high credit scores among those who are getting approved. An important reason for overly-conservative lending is due to the exposure of random lawsuits by the government on lending institutions in recent years. To the degree that the Trump Administration makes it very clear as to what is and what is not an infraction then more mortgages will be provided to consumers. Should the Trump Administration create an environment of “we will sue you” then the lending institutions will retrench and shut off mortgage access to many consumers.
6. There could be less regulatory land-use and zoning burden for home construction, and thereby lower the cost of building. In recent years, newly constructed home prices have been much higher than existing home prices. Homebuilders say that is due to all the extra cost of regulation and not necessarily from higher input cost of lumber, cement, and worker wages. President Obama’s economists in fact wrote a white paper on the topic of lifting this burden. President Trump will likely try to move this issue – though jurisdictional issues of federal versus local will be contested.
7. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may not survive. This would be most unfortunate. Let me be clear, these two institutions made horrendous business decisions in the past to buy subprime mortgages, create an internal hedge fund, and be led by political players in an attempt to serve political goals. That mistake cost hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars. Fortunately, after management changes Fannie and Freddie today are led by technicians providing a government guarantee on soundly-written mortgages. As a result, they have repaid all the taxpayer bailout money. Moreover, they are doing so well financially given the very low mortgage default rates, that the U.S. Treasury is getting added revenue on the backs of responsible homeowners. If anything, the guarantee fees are too high and should be reduced. If Washington’s instinct is to eliminate Fannie and Freddie because of their past sins from past managers, then mortgages will be much more expensive with 30-year fixed rate products disappearing from the market place. Consider: mortgage lending on commercial real estate collapsed by over 90% a few years ago during the financial market crisis because there are no government guarantees for this product. Imagine what the housing market would be like if there was an equivalent crash of 90% reduction in home buying. We should view supporting Fannie and Freddie in the same way as we view supporting FDIC deposit government guarantee at banks – to help smooth the financial market.
8. Community colleges are likely to get more help. That is because we need more workers with trade skills such as welders, plumbers, bricklayers, electricians, nurse assistants, and x-ray technicians. Some of these graduates will go into building homes and commercial real estate development. Interestingly, even though Mr. Trump and Secretary Clinton refused to shake hands, they both agreed on the greater role of community colleges in today’s economy.
9. Homeowners in flood zones and who suffer through natural disasters may get much less relief from the government. Currently this federal program to assist in wild fires, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural disasters is $24 billion in the hole. The government instinct could be to reduce government’s role and have homeowners pay more. All risks should no doubt be properly priced. But the current flood map for federal insurance coverage is totally outdated and not useful. Rather than lessen the coverage on federal insurance more efforts should be made on updating the maps so a better risk assessment can be made.
10. There will be active discussions on tax reform. The goal would be to simplify. Currently, the U.S. tax code is said to be thicker than the Bible – but without any of the good news. In simplifying, there could be a trimming of the mortgage interest deduction, reducing property tax deduction, and cutting of exemptions on capital gains from the sale of a home. Moreover, for commercial real estate practitioners, the like-kind exchange tax deferral (also known in the industry as 1031) could easily be on the chopping block. Research has consistently shown how valuable these tax preferences are for homeownership, in protecting private property rights, and for economic growth. People in real estate and property owners across the country should therefore be on alert about any policy discussion on these matters.

To read the full article click here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrenceyun/2016/11/10/trump-presidency-and-impact-on-real-estate/#52564e5c40b7