Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of National Association of Realtors, in  classic Yun-style opined recently on how the real estate market could be impacted by Donald Trump’s victory and Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress.  Though Mr. Trump is a real estate man, his policy platform has been largely vague on real estate proposals.

Yun’s opinions on how certain real estate issues may play out under President Trump and their potential impact to consumers follow:

1. There will no doubt be a short-term stimulus to the economy. A combination of tax cuts and government spending in the form of upgrading nation’s infrastructure and for national defense will provide a short boost to the economy in the first half of 2017. Inflation will likely kick a bit higher from a faster GDP growth and that will lead to modestly higher interest rates. Accompanying gains in consumer confidence will further move the economy higher. Should the faster GDP growth be sustained and arise out of higher productivity, then inflation will be manageable. Moreover, more jobs will automatically mean more tax revenue, which will lessen budget deficit. Should, however, the stimulus impact give only a short-term boost and not be durable then a much larger budget deficit will force interest rates notably higher. The future generation will be saddled with more debt.
2. The trade deficit will surely rise in 2017. That’s because a growing economy will allow Americans to drink more Italian wine, drive German sports cars, watch Korean dramas, and play Japanese game consoles. More vacation trips to Cancun and London are also likely. These activities always happen when consumers regain confidence about their financial well-being. Should tariffs be raised to lessen the trade deficit, consumers will face higher prices. If exports and imports significantly decline, then history has repeatedly shown that recession and job cuts soon follow. Most economists believe job training and re-training via community colleges are much better ways to help those who lose jobs from technological automation and from international trade.
3. There will be more gyrations in the stock market. Wall Street will cheer because of less government regulation but will frown on restrictive international trade policies. The current leader of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, may be asked to step down and this perceived intrusion into what should be an independent institution may be viewed by the financial market as unsettling. Perhaps Mr. Trump relishes in his unpredictability. But the rise of uncertainty in the financial market will hold back corporate investment spending decisions. History says that economic dynamism thrives on the rule of law and not on whims of policy uncertainty. Institutions of law matter much more than any one person or a group of people.
4. Changes to Dodd-Frank financial regulation will occur in some form. A clear positive would be the lifting of compliance costs imposed on small-sized banks. Around 10,000 local and community banks have traditionally been the source of funding for construction and land development loans. With less regulatory burden, these small banks can make more loans and will boost home building activity – something that is needed in the current housing shortage situation. But changes to financial regulations on large banks like Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo could again lead us back to the days of cowboy capitalism and consequent exposure to a massive taxpayer bailout.
5. There could be a move away from stringent mortgage underwriting to more normal lending. Credit is still tight for mortgages as evidenced by very high credit scores among those who are getting approved. An important reason for overly-conservative lending is due to the exposure of random lawsuits by the government on lending institutions in recent years. To the degree that the Trump Administration makes it very clear as to what is and what is not an infraction then more mortgages will be provided to consumers. Should the Trump Administration create an environment of “we will sue you” then the lending institutions will retrench and shut off mortgage access to many consumers.
6. There could be less regulatory land-use and zoning burden for home construction, and thereby lower the cost of building. In recent years, newly constructed home prices have been much higher than existing home prices. Homebuilders say that is due to all the extra cost of regulation and not necessarily from higher input cost of lumber, cement, and worker wages. President Obama’s economists in fact wrote a white paper on the topic of lifting this burden. President Trump will likely try to move this issue – though jurisdictional issues of federal versus local will be contested.
7. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may not survive. This would be most unfortunate. Let me be clear, these two institutions made horrendous business decisions in the past to buy subprime mortgages, create an internal hedge fund, and be led by political players in an attempt to serve political goals. That mistake cost hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars. Fortunately, after management changes Fannie and Freddie today are led by technicians providing a government guarantee on soundly-written mortgages. As a result, they have repaid all the taxpayer bailout money. Moreover, they are doing so well financially given the very low mortgage default rates, that the U.S. Treasury is getting added revenue on the backs of responsible homeowners. If anything, the guarantee fees are too high and should be reduced. If Washington’s instinct is to eliminate Fannie and Freddie because of their past sins from past managers, then mortgages will be much more expensive with 30-year fixed rate products disappearing from the market place. Consider: mortgage lending on commercial real estate collapsed by over 90% a few years ago during the financial market crisis because there are no government guarantees for this product. Imagine what the housing market would be like if there was an equivalent crash of 90% reduction in home buying. We should view supporting Fannie and Freddie in the same way as we view supporting FDIC deposit government guarantee at banks – to help smooth the financial market.
8. Community colleges are likely to get more help. That is because we need more workers with trade skills such as welders, plumbers, bricklayers, electricians, nurse assistants, and x-ray technicians. Some of these graduates will go into building homes and commercial real estate development. Interestingly, even though Mr. Trump and Secretary Clinton refused to shake hands, they both agreed on the greater role of community colleges in today’s economy.
9. Homeowners in flood zones and who suffer through natural disasters may get much less relief from the government. Currently this federal program to assist in wild fires, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural disasters is $24 billion in the hole. The government instinct could be to reduce government’s role and have homeowners pay more. All risks should no doubt be properly priced. But the current flood map for federal insurance coverage is totally outdated and not useful. Rather than lessen the coverage on federal insurance more efforts should be made on updating the maps so a better risk assessment can be made.
10. There will be active discussions on tax reform. The goal would be to simplify. Currently, the U.S. tax code is said to be thicker than the Bible – but without any of the good news. In simplifying, there could be a trimming of the mortgage interest deduction, reducing property tax deduction, and cutting of exemptions on capital gains from the sale of a home. Moreover, for commercial real estate practitioners, the like-kind exchange tax deferral (also known in the industry as 1031) could easily be on the chopping block. Research has consistently shown how valuable these tax preferences are for homeownership, in protecting private property rights, and for economic growth. People in real estate and property owners across the country should therefore be on alert about any policy discussion on these matters.

To read the full article click here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrenceyun/2016/11/10/trump-presidency-and-impact-on-real-estate/#52564e5c40b7

TUCSON, AZ – The Tucson Association of REALTORS® (TAR) and the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS (NAR) are pleased to announce November as REALTOR Designation Awareness Month. NAR established November as an important month in which to encourage its members to start or complete an officially endorsed designation or certification through NAR or one of its Institutes, Societies and Councils.

“In today’s market, continuing education is our best way to stay ahead of the competition.  Now more than ever, successful agents must keep current on issues, involving technology, changing legalities, and many other central components of the business,” stated Andrea Ballard, Chief Operating Officer of Tucson Association of REATLORS^Ò. NAR offers advanced designation and certification programs to help members remain up-to-date in such a dynamic environment. Although other designations exist, only these carry an official NAR endorsement.

Ballard adds, “REALTORS have access to advanced education designation and certification programs, tailored to virtually every real estate specialty.  Beyond building skills, knowledge and productivity, these prestigious programs enhance the professional image of REALTORS and take our members to the next level.”

In 2008, the National Association of REALTORS created NAR’s Green Designation to serve the growing demand for green expertise in real estate. The Green Resource Council awards the industry-recognized NAR Green Designation to REALTORS  who have met the educational and practical requirements.

The first NAR GREEN designee in Tucson is 2015 TAR Board President, Nicole Brule-Fisher, who is also the first certified Tucson EcoBroker®. Brule-Fisher stated, “Responsible. Ethical. Green. Sustainable.  I believe these are the keystones to our success as REALTORS^Ò  in our community.”

The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS and Tucson Association of REATLORS strongly encourage its members to increase their professional image, marketability, productivity and earnings through the pursuance of a designation or certification program.

For a complete list of the official NAR family designations and certifications, visit www.realtor.org/designations-and-certifications

WASHINGTON, DC — Pending home sales were mostly unchanged in December, but inched forward slightly, fueled by a large increase in the Northeast that outpaced declines in the other three major regions, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, crawled 0.1 percent to 106.8 in December from a downwardly revised 106.7 in November and is now 4.2 percent above December 2014 (102.5). The index has increased year-over-year for 16 consecutive months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says contract activity closed out the year on stable footing but lost some momentum, except for in the Northeast. “Warmer than average weather and more favorable inventory conditions compared to other parts of the country encouraged more households in the Northeast to make the decision to buy last month,” he said. “Overall, while sustained job creation is spurring more activity compared to a year ago, the ability to find available homes in affordable price ranges is difficult for buyers in many job creating areas. With homebuilding still grossly inadequate, steady price appreciation and tight supply conditions aren’t going away any time soon.”

According to Yun, although healthy labor market conditions will persuade more households to buy, it’s possible overall demand could be somewhat curtailed in coming months. The stock market’s sizeable losses since the start of the year and the effect slowing manufacturing activity is having in some areas — especially in the energy sector — could cause some to hold off on buying.

“The silver lining from the market turmoil in recent weeks is the fact that mortgage rates have slightly declined,” says Yun. “Buyers looking to close on a home before the spring buying season begins may be rewarded with a mortgage rate at or below 4 percent.”

Existing-homes sales this year are forecast to be around 5.34 million, an increase of 1.5 percent from 2015. The national median existing-home price for all of this year is expected to increase between 4 and 5 percent. In 2015, existing-home sales increased 6.5 percent and prices rose 6.8 percent.

Rents — which have far outpaced wages in recent years — are expected to slightly slow to 3.3 percent growth in 2016 from 3.6 percent a year ago. Multifamily housing starts are expected to reach 420,000 units this year, the highest level since 1987.

The PHSI in the Northeast increased 6.1 percent to 97.8 in December, and is now 15.3 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index decreased 1.1 percent to 103.6 in December, but is still 3.6 percent above December 2014.

Pending home sales in the South declined 0.5 percent to an index of 119.3 in December but are 1.0 percent higher than last December. The index in the West decreased 2.1 percent in December to 97.5, but remains 3.4 percent above a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.