TUCSON (VAIL), ARIZONA — Lennar Homes bought 160 lots at Rincon Knolls in Vail, Arizona before the end of year for $3,024,125 ($18,900 per lot)

The platted and fully engineered lots were sold by TTLC Rincon Knolls, LLC an affiliate of The True Life Companies-(Aidan Barry, Senior VP) in this Phase 1 of Rincon Knolls. True Life will have an additional 189 lots remaining to sell in the next phase.

Will White with Land Advisors Organization in Tucson handled the transactions with associate, John Carroll.

“Rincon Knolls has been of the most sought-after properties in the Vail area,” said White. “Lennar has proven to be strategic and proactive on its acquisitions in 2017 and this is another great example.”

“The Vail area has had an amazing year in new home sales, homebuilder lot acquisitions, and the construction of a large amount of new retail and commercial to support the residents,” White continued. “This area is experiencing record high demand by the region’s homebuilders due to the natural aesthetics, Vail School District, and the pace and pricing power over the past few years. With shovel ready land in extremely short supply, we expect homebuilders to continue to aggressively pursue land positions in Vail in 2018 and beyond as this area experiences a large amount of current success and future potential.”

For more information, White and Carroll should be reached at 520-514-7454.

It’s been 15 years since longtime real estate broker, Will White opened the Tucson office of Land Advisors Organization and began navigating the larger, high-profile land deals in the region. The Land Advisors Organization (LAO) specializes in the brokerage of land, with an exclusive focus on land-related assets and White has been the head of the Tucson office since it opened in 2001.

LAO has been involved in a large percentage of the most significant land transactions in Tucson, from Rancho Vistoso, Dove Mountain, Sanders Grove, Saguaro Ranch, Saguaro Bloom and Gladden Farms in the Northwest submarket to the new La Estancia Master Planned Community, Mountain Vail, and Rincon Knolls in the Southeast submarket. White’s unique perspective has helped his clients successfully navigate through a changing environment; through both good and bad cycles. White has certainly seen the best as well as the worse land markets during this time.

We recently sat down with White to get his thoughts on the past, present and future land market in Tucson.

Q: What gives you personally the most pleasure in reaching this landmark anniversary?

White: It is great to drive around the area and feel that we have made a positive contribution to the responsible growth of our community. We are from Tucson and that matters a great deal to us. In fact, we currently represent existing and future residential projects in Tucson totaling over 15,000 lots, so we expect to be a big part of Tucson’s growth in the immediate future!

Q: Tell us something that most people don’t know about LAO.

White: We are more a team than most people realize. Our Brokers collaborate not only in our market but across our network of offices, realizing that we have access to buyers and information that transcends our individual knowledge.  We also rely heavily on our support staff in Tucson and at our Corporate Headquarters in Scottsdale, taking advantage of the best resources in the business to support our clients and their transactions.  Cliché as it sounds, a deal done is a victory not just for our Brokers, but for our entire Land Advisors team.

Q: One thing that stands out watching LAO is its perpetual optimism and ability to adapt, do you consider that a key to your success?

White: I have never seen any benefit to being anything other than optimistic. I think you have to be able to adapt or you can’t keep pace in this business, that is fluid and changes so quickly. We are constantly trying to find new data sources, coming up with new ways to interpret that data, and using technology to better serve our clients. We also work to better understand the evolving needs of our clients. Having John Carroll in the office has helped this; John represents an emerging generation and it is great to get his perspective on the business and incorporate his ideas into what we do.

Q: What changes in the market have you seen over the past decade?

White: There have been dramatic shifts in the land market here over the past decade. The ownership makeup has almost completely changed in 10 years. The increase in market share that the national homebuilders have grown is dramatic and is playing a huge role in the land market locally. We have also seen some of the largest homebuilder land deals in the State continue to come out of Tucson each year. This is a direct result of historically low lot inventory, increasing homebuilder market shares, and an improving local market.

There is also a noticeable shift in demand for age-restricted or age-targeted communities in the area. I anticipate that we will see some larger projects put into play to accommodate the rapid growth in that segment of the housing market.

As infill projects become harder to locate and more difficult to obtain entitlements and infrastructure, we are seeing more attention shift to the master-planned communities that have “ready now” inventory and new amenities for homebuyers. With lot inventory coming at a premium in town for the next few years, the masterplans will be getting more and more attention.

Q: Are you seeing a market recovery?

White: Definitely! Although we are historically low in our annual permit counts, we have recovered very strongly in the past from similar or worse conditions. I think the next decade in Tucson may be one of the best in history. We have all the components necessary for this to be an extremely active market for many years.

Tucson is a great place to live and work and that will be the driving force we can rely on for the future.

Q: After 15-years, do you still like your job and Monday mornings?

White: Our office is a great mixture of fun and hard work. It is that way by design. We always say we are going to work harder and have more fun than everyone and that has been a good formula so far.

I’m always excited to come to work every day. You never know what you are going to get – it is a blast!  We have a great office, a fantastic team, and have developed some client relationships which have (thankfully) evolved into friendships over the years.  And while we have accomplished some great things over the past 15 years, the greatest feeling is in knowing that we are just getting started.  The next decade is going to be amazing for Tucson!

Q: Do you have any closing remarks or advise for our readers?

White: We started from scratch 15 years ago and have been fortunate to capture a substantial market share in Tucson each year. And while our market share is great – it is really a complement of our clients that have continually chosen to work with us. Our goal is taking the best possible care of our clients and making sure we’ve done everything we can to help them achieve their objectives. As we do this, our clients return to work with us again and again, and market share seems to take care of itself.

The Land Advisors Organization employs a collaborative brokerage model with offices located in Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, Texas, Utah and Washington. To reach Will White directly, call 520.514.7454.

In terms of 2013 homebuilding activity and trends, this is the most interesting market most industry players have seen in quite some time, some are calling it “a new era for land and homebuilders in Tucson”.

Will White runs the Tucson office for Land Advisors Organization and has negotiated the sale of over 4,500 platted or finished lots in the past 36-months including some of the regions highest priced land deals. We sat down with White recently to discuss the land trends and to hear from this land veteran what he expects to see in this ‘new era’.

“First of all, there’s new stakeholders in the metro Tucson land market, and for the first time ever, the majority of the major residential projects are in the hands of Phoenix developers,” said White. “Communities such as Sanders Grove (Randy Bury and The Cardon Group of Mesa) and Uptown/Marana (The Cardon Group of Mesa), La Estancia and Sendero Pass (Sunbelt Holdings of Scottsdale), Rincon Knolls, Dove Mountain  Boulder Bridge and Donut Hole Vistoso (all True Life communities of Scottsdale) Saguaro Bloom (Grayhawk Development of Scottsdale), Gladden Farms I and II (Petrus Partners /Crown West of New York and Scottsdale), Tortolita (TMR Investors, LLC of Scottsdale). In addition to the large projects of Rocking K and Verano, owned by Diamond Ventures of Tucson.

“Then there is starting to be a “critical” lot shortage that will step up the game for homebuilders as they begin to face that challenge,” according to White. All of the problem projects that were out there in 2008-2012, have been absorbed by Phoenix developers and groups from outside Tucson who control about 20,000 future lots.

With less than 5,000 finished lots remaining and only a small amount of re-zonings on the horizon, a lot shortage is inevitable. To put it into perspective, the UA estimates permits by the year 2019 to be close to 6,000 per year. In order to deliver this many homes, there will need to be approximately 21,000 – 26,000 lots delivered over the next 5-years. Making that task even more daunting is the 10-year projections of approximately 8,500 permits per year. This will require approximately 60,000 lots to be delivered over this same time period. White points out that since the mid-90’s, Tucson has averaged about 27,000 permits every five years. Due to poor conditions, there has not been enough lots put into the pipeline over the past 5-years. “Now we are all playing catch up,” says White.

White says, “One can be as conservative as they would like about these forecasts, but the trend is going higher over the next 10-years. To get back to a supply balance the homebuilders will need to do what they did in 2013 and purchase 3,500 lots annually. If permits make a run up like they did in the late 90’s then it becomes even more critical.”

While there were approximately 1,000 finished lots added in 2013, this isn’t enough to keep up with demand and soon entitled lots will be gone. Land entitlement can take up to 3-years to go from raw land to entitlements and it all starts with rezoning, forget about state land it could take 10 years to rezone as shown in Pinal County recently.

So, where will these lots come from in the future? Rest assured, lot prices will continue to increase in value from the pressures of supply and mounting demand and as long as the economic recovery continues.

We asked White hypothetically, if he were a homebuilder, where he would go next in Tucson? His answer was, “When entitled lots are exhausted, then that’s when things are going to really get interesting. There’s the Houghton/ I-10 SE corridor with about 1,000 lots before state land blocks expansion. There’s the southwest out past Sendero Pass and towards Sahuarita and there’s the I-10 corridor from Marana to Pinal County. Take your pick, but pick quickly!” All of these areas are going to become hot spots.

This is where the new stakeholders could play a critical role, in bringing resources and practical knowledge and experience to move Tucson forward. Having new outside stakeholders, with new perspectives is a positive thing, and may be just be what saves Tucson from stagnation in a few years. It’s not the first time these developers have faced growth challenges, and most have been involved in some of the most beloved communities in our State, award winning communities such as McDowell Mountain Ranch in Scottsdale comes to mind.

All these developers want economic progress for Tucson and it’s not asking too much to expect our County to recognize this and welcome these new stakeholders, who bring gifts of jobs and prosperity from Phoenix to the table with them. The possibilities are as endless as our imaginations, but first it may take an appreciation of the critical threshold where we find ourselves of a ‘new era’ for Tucson, not only for homebuilding but other commercial projects.

White can be reached at (520) 514-7454.