(August 14, 2025) -- The post-COVID-19 labor market has seen major changes, including a rise in job switches (job-to-job flows). This shift, driven in part by inflation and limited wage growth, reflects growing worker mobility and changing employment priorities. With this in mind, CommercialSearch’s newest study examines job-to-job flows across cities, industries, and age groups, providing a clear view of the evolution of the post-pandemic labor market.
While this phenomenon has played out nationwide, U.S. Census data shows Phoenix emerging as a clear winner in job-to-job net flow, while Tucson’s smaller, slower-moving labor market faces a different set of challenges and opportunities.
Phoenix’s Net Gains Outpace Most of the Nation
In 2023, Phoenix ranked just behind Dallas and Houston in net job-to-job gains, adding 9,327 workers to its labor force. Notably, 62% of those moving to Phoenix for a new job were men, and unlike Texas metros where moves were often in-state, Phoenix drew heavily from out-of-state talent pools. Los Angeles, Chicago, Seattle, and Dallas were among the top contributors of inbound workers.
Phoenix’s strong draw suggests a growing reputation as a destination for career opportunities beyond its traditional construction, tourism, and service sectors. Administrative and waste management services topped the list for job-to-job flows within the city, accounting for 16% of the total.
The retention rate is equally striking — 77% of Phoenix workers who switched jobs stayed within the metro area. That’s nearly 440,000 workers making local moves rather than relocating, underscoring the breadth of opportunities available across industries without leaving the Valley.
Tucson: Fewer Inflows, More Local Retention
While Tucson did not register among the top metros for net job-to-job gains, it shares Phoenix’s high percentage of “inside flows.” A significant share of workers changing jobs in Tucson remain in the metro area, reflecting a labor market where much of the churn happens within the same community rather than through cross-city migration.
Tucson’s largest flows are concentrated in health care, higher education, and government-related roles — sectors that remain stable employers but don’t always see the same rapid job creation as Phoenix’s logistics, tech services, or corporate support sectors. This limits the scale of in-bound relocations, but it also helps maintain workforce stability.
Regional Dynamics: Arizona’s Labor Pipeline
Phoenix’s ability to draw workers from high-cost metros like Los Angeles and Chicago complements Tucson’s more regionally focused labor pool. Some workers who initially land in Phoenix later relocate to Tucson for lifestyle or cost-of-living reasons while retaining remote or hybrid roles with Phoenix-based employers. This “talent spillover” effect benefits Tucson indirectly, even if it doesn’t show up in national net flow rankings.
Meanwhile, both cities share some statewide patterns. Millennials and Gen Z workers are the most mobile cohorts, with Phoenix capturing a notable share of each group’s job-to-job switches. In Tucson, younger workers are overrepresented in hospitality, health care, and retail — industries that have experienced higher turnover due to wage pressures and work-life balance considerations.
Industry Highlights in Arizona
Nationwide, accommodation and food services, retail trade, health care, and administrative services consistently post double-digit shares of total job-to-job flows. Phoenix mirrors this trend, with administrative and waste management services leading, while Tucson’s top sector for transitions is health care — reflecting the city’s role as a regional medical hub serving Southern Arizona.
Health care job switching in Tucson aligns with national trends of burnout, career advancement, and shifting skill demands. In Phoenix, the growth of back-office support services and logistics hubs has attracted workers from both traditional administrative roles and entirely different sectors seeking better pay.
The Outlook for Phoenix and Tucson
Phoenix appears positioned to continue drawing in outside talent, especially from higher-cost metros, as long as its job market keeps diversifying. High local retention rates suggest that workers find the breadth of opportunities they need without leaving the city.
Tucson’s challenge will be to expand beyond stable but slower-growth sectors and create the kind of diverse job ecosystem that encourages both retention and in-migration. While not competing with Phoenix in raw net flow numbers, Tucson can leverage its lower cost of living, proximity to the border, and university-driven innovation to attract niche industries and remote workers seeking a different pace.
Both metros will feel the impact of broader labor market trends: inflationary pressures pushing workers toward higher pay, ongoing shifts in work-life balance expectations, and the need to address industry-specific turnover. For Phoenix, the focus will be on sustaining its role as a magnet for national talent; for Tucson, it’s about converting local job-to-job stability into an engine for broader economic growth.
Go here for the full CommercialSearch study