Trend Report Editor’s Insight on 2025 Residential Development Trends

TUCSON, AZ (March 3, 2025) — The Residential Development Trends issue of Trend Report is out; here are the Editor’s Insights. The housing market has been anything but predictable. Prices shot up, mortgage rates followed, and buyers wondered if they’d ever catch a break.

If you think a crash is coming, it’s not happening. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation expects home prices to rise in 2025, not fall. The housing market isn’t built like the 2008 disaster.

Crashes happen when there’s an oversupply of homes and no one buys them. That’s not the case in 2025. If anything, buyer demand is holding strong, keeping prices propped up.

The only way we’d see a serious downturn is if there were a massive wave of foreclosures, which isn’t in the cards. If affordability is your concern, focus on increasing your income and saving aggressively because waiting for a crash that won’t come is a losing bet.

I just returned from the SAHBA / LAO 2025 Tucson Land & Housing Forecast on February 27th, and I learned to expect our housing market to remain strong into 2030.

Also, from the Land Forecast, Will White reports on Tucson’s Land & Housing Market: Challenges and Opportunities 2025

The City is considering loosening zoning restrictions to increase housing supply, which might help slow down price growth. Daniel Bursack of the City of Tucson Planning and Development Services Department tells us the city is currently short 8,747 housing units, with 4,717 of these needed by homeless individuals. Promoting Housing and Mixed-Use Development Through the Proposed Community Corridors Tool (CCT). Please take the time to watch the video here.

In Emerging Residential Development Trends in Pima County, our Pima County Assessor, Suzanne Droubie, explains how her department works to attract new businesses to Pima County with 5-year valuation projections intended to help local businesses, investors, and homeowners make informed decisions with projected property tax liability.

Cole Williamson with Fairfield Homes, a new contributor to Trend, updates us on Boulder Canyon in the Future of Residential Development: Trends Shaping 2025 and Beyond.

“Over 1,000 New Homes Coming to Rancho Sahuarita in 2025”  is an exciting announcement from Jeremy Sharpe, Managing Partner of Rancho Sahuarita. The rapid growth of this community, including Sahuarita Town Center, is truly astounding!

The supply of homes remains tight, especially in high-demand areas where new construction isn’t keeping up.

Thanks to RL Brown Reports for the SFR Permit Volume report by Municipality in the Tucson MSA.

We also thank the Trend Report staff for compiling the Apartment Trends in Metro Tucson of 40+ Unit Apartment Properties for Q4 2024.

Thanks to Nick Miner, CCIM, for the Special Report in the 2025 Southern AZ CCIM Forecast: Insights and Trends Recap from the So AZ CCIM Forecast event held February 10, 2025.

The market isn’t crashing, and mortgage rates aren’t dropping to rock-bottom levels. Home prices are steady, inventory is improving but still tight, and buyer demand remains strong. Trend Report Staff compiled a Synopsis of What the Experts Are Saying about Arizona’s Housing Market, Housing Market Prediction for 2025 and 2026 per NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun and Zillow Weighs in on Housing Predictions for 2025: What Buyers and Sellers Can Expect to round things out.

Thank you to everyone who participated in this Trend Report issue. We could not have done it without you!

As always, we are grateful for the Trend Report team: Patti van Leer, Michael Rossmann, Melissa Vucijevic, and Jack Paddock.

Work has already begun on our much-anticipated April “Retail” issue.

As always, we appreciate your feedback and welcome your comments. Come tell us “Hi” at https//trendreportaz.com under the “Connect tab.”

Stay Sharp with Actionable Insights!
Karen Schutte, Editor