TUCSON, AZ (October 22, 2025) — Tucson’s industrial market saw a modest cooling in the third quarter as vacancy rose 90 basis points to 6.3 percent, driven primarily by large tenant moveouts in the Southeast submarket. Despite the uptick, vacancy remains well below other Southwestern markets, including Phoenix, which reported 11 percent during the same period, according to CBRE’s Q3 2025 Tucson Industrial Figures Report.
The quarter closed with a negative net absorption of 355,839 square feet, following several significant departures, while overall construction activity remained steady with 1,018,702 square feet still underway. Asking lease rates edged up slightly to $0.84 per square foot NNN, marking a two-cent increase from the previous quarter. Market-wide availability climbed to 9.0 percent, or 3.8 million square feet, up from 3.3 million square feet in Q2.
Among the submarkets, the Southeast and North Central regions saw the most significant increases in availability, rising 350 and 290 basis points, respectively. The Airport submarket was the only one to post positive absorption, adding 82,336 square feet, while the Southeast experienced the largest decline at –387,854 square feet.
Significant tenant movement during the quarter included Black & Decker vacating two properties totaling 330,000 square feet in the Southeast region. New activity included Roller Bearing Corp. moving into 111,401 square feet, and Schnitzer Properties leasing 24,822 square feet at 2717 E. Corona Rd in the Airport submarket.
No new construction projects broke ground in Q3, leaving the development pipeline unchanged at just over 1 million square feet, roughly 900,000 square feet of which is speculative. Projects in the planning stage include the American Battery Factory and Beale Infrastructure’s planned 290-acre data center in the Southeast submarket. Together, these developments are projected to create thousands of jobs and deliver $3.6 billion in statewide economic impact.
CBRE’s report also highlights a shift in market sentiment following the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of the year, reducing the federal funds rate from 4.25 percent to 4.00 percent. Lower borrowing costs could improve investor confidence and spur occupier demand in the coming quarters. Although vacancy increased in Q3, Tucson’s rate remains below its 10-year average of 7.1 percent, underscoring continued market resilience.
CBRE forecasts investment volume growth approaching 15 percent by year-end, fueled by improving financial conditions, new industrial projects, and stronger employment prospects.
“While several large moveouts briefly lifted vacancy, the fundamentals remain solid,” CBRE noted. “Tucson’s industrial sector continues to benefit from steady construction activity, moderate rent growth, and a more favorable financing environment heading into 2026.”
Read the full report here: CBRE Q3 2025 Industrial Report Tucson