Predictions around a relatively unchanging 2024 for CRE operations encompassed positive and negative contributors' views this month.
Nearing the end of a year fraught with myriad challenges to commercial real estate finance, investing, and development, industry experts offered their recaps of 2023 and predictions for 2024 without mincing words about the struggles and triumphs.
We’ve seen this before. Housing prices remain steady due to a lack of inventory. Meanwhile, home foreclosures are up 34 percent year-over-year, with more than 150,000 homes nationally in some foreclosure stage last quarter.
We are thrilled to start off the 2024 Outlook with Pima County Director of Economic Development, Heath Vescovi-Chiordi, who explains the county's initiatives to facilitate prosperity in our communities and how it is all coming together in Pima County Recaps 2023 Economic Development and Looks Beyond.
Steve Cole with Southwest Appraisal Associates doesn’t mince words on the numerous challenges we face head-on in 2024 Real Estate Values and the Economy and discussing how the economy is doing better than expected at the macro level while performing less than good at the micro level.
Break out by Segments
Dave Volk of Volk Company updates us on Tucson’s Office Market – For Once It’s Good to be Abnormal as Tucson continues to buck national trends.
According to Will White of Land Advisors Organization in Tucson Land Market Forecast 2024: Surpassing Expectations, the housing segment will surpass expectations next year with a trajectory of 4,240 new home permits predicted that is expected to cause strains on the regional infrastructure.
Max Fisher of BRD Realty says to “expect a K-shaped recovery” in the economy and real estate in his 2024 Industrial Forecast, with office and multifamily representing the downward line and industrial flex going up.
Mark Biery, CCIM, and Rick Lynn, with a combined 40 years of experience, take on the challenges of the senior housing market in Where is the Senior Housing Industry Headed Next Year?
We especially thank our contributors from Phoenix in this issue, who enthusiastically gave us their perspectives from the north. Regan Amato with JLL says Phoenix Retail Shines expects Phoenix Retail to remain in this enviable position for the foreseeable future.
Eric Termansen, Ryan Desmond, Andrew Lundahl, Dave Uhles, Kalen Richard, Charles Skaggs, and Bryan Ledbetter with Western Retail Advisors give us their insights into their specialized retail segments in Phoenix. They shed light on the Overall Phoenix Retail Market, Big Box, Capital Markets, Tenant Representation, Strip Centers, Restaurants, and Anchor Centers.
Followed by Kyle Seeger, Jami Savage-Gray, Jimmy Cornish, Keith Lammersen, and Katie McIntyre, with JLL bringing their Office Predictions to the discussion. Return to Office, Flight to Quality, Hot Submarkets, Sublease Space, and Medical Office Space bring summaries for each market segment.
We asked the Southern Arizona CCIM Chapter designees to share their 2024 Predictions. Craig Finfrock, CCIM, on the Economy, Tucson, and CRE, Rob Glaser, CCIM, on Demand and Minimal Inventory for the Industrial Market, Jason Wong, CCIM, on The Balance Sheet Recession, George Larsen, CCIM, gives his Top 5 Real Estate Headlines for 2024 and Batoun Herrington, CCIM, says Opportunities Will Continue to Abound. They make it sound so easy!
Special thanks to all of our 25 contributors who brought this Trend report to life and our Trend report team: Patti van Leer, Michael Rossmann, Melissa Vucijevic, and Jack Paddock for making it happen. We start working right away on the January issue featuring Best in Class Trend Report Awards for 2023 and the Best of Trends.
Thank you to our readers for your continued support. As always, we appreciate your feedback and welcome your comments.