TUCSON, AZ (Feb. 3, 2026) — A new national wave of brick-and-mortar expansion is taking shape in 2026, led by value retailers and discount concepts. Business Insider reports that announced openings are currently set to outpace announced closures this year, with more than 800 new stores expected to open nationwide in 2026.
For Southern Arizona, the signal is clear: value-driven retail is still actively hunting for sites, especially in growth corridors and high-traffic neighborhood centers—while legacy formats continue to be right-sized.
The biggest 2026 expanders to watch
- Dollar General: The chain says it plans to open about 450 new U.S. stores in 2026, plus thousands of remodels and a small number of relocations. Local lens: This continues to reinforce demand for small-footprint, value-oriented boxes—particularly in underserved and rural trade areas.
- Aldi: The grocer announced 180+ new stores across 31 states by the end of 2026, bringing its U.S. total to nearly 2,800. Arizona lens: Regional coverage reports 10 new Aldi stores planned in Metro Phoenix in 2026, part of its broader westward growth strategy. Tucson continues to hope for its first Aldi.
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet: The off-price closeout chain is targeting 75 new stores in fiscal 2026, according to company guidance and earnings materials. Local lens: Ollie’s growth is being fueled by “second-generation” big boxes and discounted lease rates in many markets—an ongoing trend that can create backfill demand for large vacancies.
- Barnes & Noble: The bookseller says it is planning more than 60 new stores in 2026, and its first 2026 opening debuted in Washington, D.C., in mid-January. Arizona lens: Barnes & Noble continues to operate Valley-area stores, underscoring that the brand’s current growth narrative is real—even as department-store traffic softens in many regions.
What it means for Tucson-area retail real estate
Across the country, expansion is concentrating in value retail, discount grocery, and necessity-based formats, which tend to perform best when shoppers are price-sensitive. For the Tucson metro, that typically translates into:
- More site competition for well-located small-shop and junior-anchor spaces
- More re-tenanting pressure (and opportunity) for older big-box centers as weaker operators exit
- Continued divergence between strong neighborhood centers and challenged mall/department-store-driven space
Phoenix area: Discount grocery expansion remains active, adding competitive pressure for well-located grocer-adjacent centers.
Tucson metro: The best-positioned opportunities tend to be (1) neighborhood centers with daily-needs traffic and (2) second-generation retail boxes that can be re-tenanted quickly at a value-driven rent point.
In Southern Arizona, the most consistent leasing demand continues to come from value, grocery-adjacent, and service-driven retail—while second-generation big-box spaces remain the best backfill opportunities for expanding discount operators.