TUCSON, AZ (February 10, 2026) -- Governor Katie Hobbs and the Arizona-Mexico Commission on January 23, 2026, released findings from Arizona’s United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) Economic Study, emphasizing the economic upside of Arizona’s trade relationships with Mexico and Canada.
The report concludes Arizona’s business community largely supports retaining and strengthening—rather than reopening and renegotiating—the USMCA during this year’s joint review. It also frames the agreement as a key driver of cost efficiency, supply-chain resilience, and day-to-day cross-border business cooperation.
“It was a real pleasure to work directly with the AMC on the recently released USMCA Report on the Future of North American Trade,” said Heath Vescovi-Chiordi, noting the importance of ensuring Southern Arizona and Pima County were represented in the analysis.
Study background
In summer 2025, Hobbs and the Arizona-Mexico Commission commissioned the Seidman Research Institute at Arizona State University to produce an Arizona-specific assessment of trade under USMCA. Researchers conducted dozens of interviews and surveyed business leaders statewide, focusing on sectors including advanced manufacturing, agriculture, construction, mining, transportation, and logistics.
The report compiles Arizona-specific data and business input on cross-border trade and investment. It notes that Mexico is Arizona’s top trading partner and Canada its second, and positions the findings as guidance for policymakers ahead of the USMCA joint review.
The release also follows an October trade and diplomatic mission to Mexico City led by Hobbs and the Arizona-Mexico Commission, where delegates met with business and government leaders to strengthen commercial ties. Hobbs also highlighted the opening of Arizona’s first Canadian trade office.
“Protecting and strengthening our trade partnerships is essential to our emergence as a leading global economic hub and continuing to grow and create jobs,” Hobbs said.
Key findings: risks if USMCA is not renewed
The report found that more than 85% of participants expect Arizona would be negatively affected if USMCA is not renewed, citing potential impacts such as:
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Trade and supply-chain disruptions
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Higher costs for businesses and consumers
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Job losses in industries dependent on trade-linked supply chains with Mexico, including aerospace, auto manufacturing, agriculture, and advanced manufacturing
Opportunities to strengthen competitiveness
The report also identifies ways to enhance USMCA to support Arizona’s competitiveness, including:
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Creating greater supply-chain clarity by reintroducing the Certificate of Origin
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Ensuring consistent application of standards (including labor and health standards) across the three nations
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Prioritizing cross-border infrastructure improvements
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Expanding cooperation in areas such as critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, food supply, and entertainment
Business leaders emphasize local stakes
Sandra Watson, president and CEO of the Arizona Commerce Authority, called Mexico and Canada “two of Arizona’s most important partners” and said the report provides a roadmap for trade policy that supports Arizona families, businesses, and workers.
Todd Sanders, president and CEO of the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce and president of the Arizona-Mexico Commission, said the report was designed to reflect business input and to serve as a “collective voice” for Arizona as the state highlights what’s working and what could be improved.
Industry leaders also pointed to USMCA’s role in strengthening supply chains and bolstering strategic sectors. Pat Risner of South32 emphasized critical minerals and the link to advanced manufacturing and semiconductors. Lance Jungmeyer of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas said the findings underscore that “trade is not just global, it is local,” especially in agriculture and distribution.
Adrian Price of Lucid cited the agreement’s value in providing supply-chain stability and predictability for investment and high-value job growth. Carolynne Hunter of St. Clair Technologies added that a full evaluation of USMCA’s impacts is especially important for small and medium-sized manufacturers making long-term strategic decisions.