Credit: Dan Berthiaume, plus reporting from the National Retail Federation (NRF) & Prosper Insights & Analytics
(November 26, 2025) -- Even as retailers launch “Black Friday” promotions before Halloween and holiday deals stretch across nearly two months, the Friday after Thanksgiving still commands unmatched weight on the retail calendar. What began in the 1950s as a single kickoff day for holiday shopping has evolved into a five-day omnichannel marathon — but Black Friday remains the crown jewel.
Black Friday by the Numbers: A Market Retailers Can’t Ignore
Data continues to show that Black Friday is one of the biggest spending days of the year. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, U.S. retail sales on Black Friday 2024 rose 3.4% year-over-year, with online sales jumping 14.6% and in-store sales edging up 0.7%.
Consumers are planning to spend — whether retailers participate or not. A LendingTree survey shows 64% of Americans expect to shop on Black Friday, and one-third will spend $500 or more.
This year, the holiday weekend is poised to set a new record. The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics estimate 186.9 million shoppers will hit stores and online platforms from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday — up from 183.4 million last year. Black Friday leads the pack, with 70% of shoppers (130.4 million) planning to participate, followed by Cyber Monday with 40% (73.9 million).
“Many Americans consider shopping to be an important part of their Thanksgiving holiday,” said Phil Rist, executive VP of strategy for Prosper Insights & Analytics. “For more than half, the deals are simply too good to pass up.”
In-Store Shopping: Still the Holiday Spirit Driver
Despite the shift toward digital browsing and early promotions, brick-and-mortar remains a dominant force. Projections from Capital One indicate 81% of 2025 retail sales will occur in physical stores.
Quad’s consumer survey highlights why:
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74% say in-store shopping is the best way to get into the holiday spirit.
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66% say their favorite gifts came from unexpected in-store discoveries.
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70% feel more comfortable making higher-priced purchases in person.
Black Friday remains the biggest in-store shopping day of the year. Retailers who draw shoppers into physical locations benefit from impulse buying, cross-sell opportunities, and higher-margin purchases that don’t happen online.
Online Black Friday: Bigger, Faster, and More Tech-Driven
But Black Friday is no longer only about 4 a.m. doorbusters. Digital channels now play an equally critical role.
Adobe Analytics reported consumers spent a record $10.8 billion online during Black Friday 2024 — more than double 2017 levels. And the rise of generative AI is reshaping traffic patterns, with an 1,800% increase in Black Friday site visits driven by AI shopping bots compared to 2023.
Retailers are turning to livestreams, social-commerce platforms, and digital deal hubs to capture this demand, mirroring Amazon’s increasingly hybrid holiday playbook.
Holiday Momentum Is Already Building
More than half of holiday shoppers (58%) began buying in early November — a pattern consistent with the last five years. According to NRF data, consumers have already completed roughly 26% of their planned purchases.
Those early waves are feeding what could become the first trillion-dollar holiday season. NRF forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales will rise 3.7% to 4.2% this year, reaching between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, up from $976 billion last year.
The Bottom Line: Black Friday Still Matters — A Lot
Yes, the shopping season is longer. Yes, consumers are stretched across both physical and digital channels. And yes, AI is changing how people discover deals. But despite all the shifts, Black Friday remains:
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The most popular shopping day of the holiday season
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A massive in-store traffic driver
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A record-setting online sales event
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A cultural shopping tradition millions still embrace
As Dan Berthiaume notes, “Yes, Virginia, there is still a Black Friday — you just need to believe and act.” And according to the NRF, nearly 187 million Americans plan to do exactly that.